Post-war military matters and concerns

 SPECIAL REPORT : Part 472

Published

  2023/05/31

Australian HC Paul Stephens with President Wickremesinghe at the Presidential Secretariat on 12 May, 2023. The PMD released a pic of HC Stephens meeting President Wickremesinghe to inform him officially of the proposed handing over of the Beechcraft, previously used by the Royal Australian Air Force.

This year’s annual Indian Navy–Sri Lanka Navy bilateral maritime Exercise SLINEX was conducted amidst political turmoil here. The six-day SLINEX, the 10th edition of the series commenced three days after the launch of a public protest campaign near President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s private residence at Pangiriwatte, Mirihana. The two-phased exercise involved several Indian vessels INS Kiltan (Advanced Anti-Submarine Warfare Corvette) and INS Savitri (Offshore Patrol Vessel), SLNS Gajabahu (Advance Offshore Patrol Vessel/The one in which President Gotabaya Rajapaksa took refuge on July 09) and SLNS Sagara (OPV). In addition, Indian Navy Chetak helicopter and Dornier Maritime Patrol Aircraft and SLAF Dornier and BELL 412 helicopters participated in the exercise. The Exercise featured the Special Forces of the two Navies. The previous edition of SLINEX was conducted in Visakhapatnam from 7-12 March 2022.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The Indian Defence Research Wing (government website) recently declared that Australia would provide a former Royal Australian Air Force Beechcraft KA 350 King Air (registration A32-673) to Sri Lanka on a request made by India. The KA350 King Air is a modern twin-engine turboprop aircraft.

The story, posted on 16 May, four days after Australian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Paul Stephens, officially informed President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is also the Defence Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the move, was headlined ‘Australia to donate Beechcraft KA 350 to Sri Lanka upon India’s request.’

HC Stephens was accompanied by Deputy High Commissioner Ms. Lalita Kapur, First Secretary Brett Zehnder and Defence Advisor Captain Ian Cain. The meeting took place at the Presidential Secretariat, the scene of violent confrontation between President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration and the protest movement, a year ago.

The Indian website asserted that the Australian move mirrored New Delhi’s bid to strengthen security ties with Sri Lanka as part of its Indian Ocean outreach. According to the website, the deployment is meant to boost Sri Lanka’s sovereign aerial maritime surveillance capability. In terms of the agreement between the two governments, the donor would support the operation of the aircraft for a period of 12 months.

The President’s Media Division (PMD) announced: “The gift of the aircraft is part of the Australian Government’s commitment to strengthening and enhancing the cooperation and collaboration that is the foundation of the strong bilateral relationship between Australia and Sri Lanka. A key focus of this relationship remains the continued cooperation on countering all forms of transnational crime, including drug smuggling, as well as strengthening border management through intelligence sharing and the deterrence, disruption, interception and return of maritime people smuggling ventures under the border security operation, known as Operation Sovereign Borders.”

Operation Sovereign Borders is a high profile military led mission, launched in 2013, to thwart illegal entry of would-be asylum seekers. The change of governments, over the past decade, hasn’t undermined the high profile operation as major political parties are committed to block illegal migration whatever the consequences.

The donation of the aircraft is in line with the understanding the two countries reached following a visit undertaken by Australian Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil, from June 19-21 last year, amidst deepening political turmoil here. She met the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe, as well as Foreign Minister Prof. G. L. Peiris. A year later, Wickremesinghe is at the helm and Gotabaya Rajapaksa ousted by a US-backed protest campaign, as alleged by former Minister Wimal Weerawansa, a claim denied by the US mission here, but not denied by Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, a key protagonist referred to by the accuser.

In April and June 2014, Sri Lanka took delivery of two 38.2 m long Australian patrol boats and they were commissioned as SLNS Mihikatha and SLNS Ratnadeepa. Both vessels are in service today. It would be pertinent to mention that the talks, on the transferring of vessels, were finalized in Colombo when the then Australian Premier Tony Abbott visited Colombo for the Commonwealth Heads of Government of Meeting (CHOGM). The Australian move was made in the wake of the UK going all out against Sri Lanka over the accountability issues.

In the following year, the then Sri Lanka’s shameless government co-sponsored the US–led accountability resolution at the Geneva-based United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) against one’s own country.

India, Australia strategy

In late August last year, Australia announced an unprecedented move to pay for a part of Sri Lankan military’s fuel requirement. Australian High Commissioner in Colombo Paul Stephens tweeted:

“Australia is pleased to be working with India to provide fuel to Sri Lanka’s Navy and Air Force. It will help our long-standing cooperation, against transnational crime, to continue. As Indian Ocean neighbours, all three countries share a commitment to preserving regional security.”

India and Australian joint approach here should be examined against the backdrop of ‘Quad’ strategy in relation to Sri Lanka. However, India pursues its own policy in terms of India’s policy of ‘Neighbourhood First’, ‘Security and Growth for all in the Region (SAGAR),’ as well as ‘Priority One’ partner. ‘Quad’ security alliance meant to counter growing Chinese influence consists of the US, Japan, Australia and India. Sri Lanka has been caught up in the China vs ‘Quad’ battle and Sri Lanka’s dependence on Chinese investments made the situation worse.

The US has included Sri Lanka in its military exercises programme while the other ‘Quad’ member Japan entered into the ‘Comprehensive Partnership’ Agreement in October 2015.

Sri Lanka took delivery of a Dornier 228 maritime patrol aircraft, from India, in mid-August last year. The SLAF declared that India made available the aircraft in response to a request made during the Yahapalana administration (2015-2019). India assured that another Dornier would be supplied within two years after the deployment of the first naval Dornier – a short takeoff and landing multirole light transport aircraft with a turboprop twin-engine, in production since 1981.

An Indian statement said: “The aircraft would act as a force multiplier, enabling Sri Lanka to tackle multiple challenges, such as human and drug trafficking, smuggling and other organized forms of crime, in its coastal waters, more effectively. Induction of the aircraft is timely in view of the current challenges to Sri Lanka’s maritime security.”

Bankrupt Sri Lanka should be grateful for Australian and Indian stepped up assistance at a time the country is experiencing a deepening economic-political-social crisis. Obviously, the crisis here can be a push factor for more Sri Lankans to risk their lives to reach foreign lands. However, the military’s growing dependence on foreign assistance must be a matter for concern for all as there is always the danger of being smothered by the giant neighbour or being unnecessarily dragged into a wider conflict between between the Quad on one side and Russia and China on the other.

Recently, India announced further help to the SLAF. The announcement was made during the four-day official visit of Chief of Air Staff Indian Air Force Air Chief Marshal V. R. Chaudhari earlier this month. The Indian air chief was here on the invitation of SLAF Commander Air Marshal Sudarshana Pathirana.

During the visit, Air Chief Marshal V.R. Chaudhari laid the foundation stone for the construction of the India-Sri Lanka Friendship Auditorium at the Air Force Academy, Trincomalee. In line with New Delhi’s ‘Neighbourhood First Policy,’ the project would be carried out under a 250 mn LKR grant assistance from India. The Indian air chief also donated AN-32 propellers to the SLAF, at the China Bay Air Force Academy, and at the National Defence College training aids were donated to students.

In addition to massive economic assistance provided in the recent past to Sri Lanka struggling on the financial front, the Indian investment, in the defence sector, is rapidly growing.

Deputy High Commissioner Vinod K. Jacob, in late February this year, underscored the Indian investment when he addressed the Indian Navy-trained Sri Lankan military personnel on board Offshore Patrol vessel Sukanya in Colombo. The Indian High Commission quoted Jacob as having stressed that training is the strongest and most enduring pillar of bilateral defence cooperation between India and Sri Lanka. The Deputy High Commissioner declared that India offered approximately 1500 training slots every year, to Sri Lanka, financed through a special programme with an annual allocation of USD 7 million.

Security sector reforms

Sri Lanka receives Indian Dornier at the BIA in August, 2022

Last week’s midweek piece, titled ‘Blind security reforms: Assurance to US on the size of military’, attracted the attention of quite a number of military officers, including the retired. They queried whether a proper and cohesive assessment has been made before the declaration that the 200,000 plus wartime strength (2009) would be reduced to 135,000 by 2024 and 100,000 by 2030.

One retired General, who had served the infantry and considered one of the foremost battlefield strategists, pointed out that the projected downsizing/right sizing of the Army, should be studied, taking into consideration the current strength. “Do not forget we are already down to 160,000 officers and men,” the retired General said, while another pointed out AWOL (‘absence without leave’ seems to be quite a problem). A retired General Officer Commanding (GoC) of a fighting division on the Vanni front emphasized the need to examine how the proposed reduction would affect post-war deployment and what is the land mass of ‘Eelam State’ (north east districts) and in relation to the drop in ground strength.

In the absence of a cohesive strategy, in relation to vital sectors, including defence, Sri Lanka seems to have neglected matters of utmost importance. Against the backdrop of a worsening situation, regardless of the USD 2.9 bn IMF package, spread over a period of 48 months, Sri Lanka cannot ignore the need to be cautious and be ready to meet any eventuality. In line with the Army, the Navy and Air Force are also to be slimmer and the fact that the downsizing of overall military strength takes place at a time of great political uncertainty and economic upheaval.

In March, Deputy Indian High Commissioner Jacob underscored the importance of Indo-Lanka relations on the basis of five areas of particular significance in the immediate short and medium term objectives.

Addressing Indian and Sri Lankan military personnel, onboard Sukanya, Jacob declared: “First is the potential for economic and financial cooperation by building on the Indian support to the people of Sri Lanka, in 2022, to the tune of USD 4 billion. The Indian HC quoted Jacob as having emphasized that focus could be laid on areas, such as trade, in national currencies, ease of investments and strengthening financial cooperation. “Second, the two sides are working towards increasing air, ferry, digital and energy connectivity. Third, a new type of development cooperation partnership, building on the existing multi-billion portfolio with special emphasis on vulnerable communities, is required. Fourth, both sides need to enhance people to people exchanges, particularly in tourist movements. Fifth, it is essential to strengthen the cultural, religious, music, movie and sporting links for mutual benefit.”

The Indian High Commission media statements present a clear picture of Indo-Lanka developments. A recent Indian High Commission statement that dealt with a visit undertaken by Indian Navy Ship ‘Batti Malv’ to Trincomalee disclosed hitherto unknown information.

Let me reproduce the relevant section from the media statement dated 17 May. The statement issued soon after the vessel departed Trincomalee made an important reference to further Indian support. “The visit of the Indian ship Batti Malv, a fast patrol craft, is also significant in view of the potential for cooperation between India and Sri Lanka for augmenting capabilities of Sri Lanka Navy in similar fast patrol craft for efficiently addressing shared challenges for maritime security in the region,” the High Commission stated.

However, the statement issued by SLN, on that particular ship visit, didn’t make any reference to the possibility of a similar type vessel being made available to Sri Lanka. The locally built 46 m long vessel, crewed by five officers and 54 men, was inducted into the Indian Navy in July 2006, the year Sri Lanka launched a combined forces campaign to eradicate the LTTE.

Since the successful conclusion of the war against the LTTE, in May 2009, India gradually advanced its relationship with a series of military visits at different levels, though the progress was slow. But, over the past several years, there has been a steady enhancement of the relationship which sort of coincided with the deterioration of the national economy.

The Indian Western Fleet visited Colombo and the China-managed Hambantota port, in the second week of March, last year, as Sri Lanka was heading for an unprecedented crisis over the collapse of supply chains.

Four ships of the Western Fleet under the charge of Flag Officer Commanding Western Fleet (FOCWF),

Rear Admiral Sameer Saxena visited Sri Lanka. The indigenous guided missile frigate BRAHMAPUTRA along with frigate TALWAR entered Hambantota port while advanced indigenous destroyer INS CHENNAI and frigate TEG entered Colombo harbour. In spite of being invited to join a reception, onboard INS Chennai, on 10 March, the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa skipped the event. Instead, Foreign Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris represented the President. The other notable invitee was Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeyawardena.

A few weeks later, the Indian High Commission had to deny reports of Indian military deployment here in the wake of the eruption of public anger, near President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s private residence at Pangiriwatte, Mirihana. In brief statements, issued in English, Sinhala and Tamil, the High Commission of India strongly denied, what it called, blatantly false and completely baseless reports in a section of media that India is dispatching its soldiers to Sri Lanka.

The High Commission statement, dated 02 April, 2022, also condemned what it described as irresponsible reporting while expressing the belief those responsible for spreading rumours would desist from doing so.

Delhi’s assistance seemed vast with the Indian Navy actively engaged with Sri Lanka Navy in facilitating engagements, like Deck Landing Practice and Co-pilot experience on indigenous ALHand Sail Training Experience onboard INS Tarangini for SLAF/ SLN personnel in March 2022.

In line with India’s Neighbourhood First Policy, spares for SLNS Sagara, SLCG Suraksha and AN 32 are being provided, on grant basis, by New Delhi, to ensure, what the Indian High Commission called, optimal operational availability of the platform and thereby improve security in the region.

Sri Lanka should take stock of overall foreign military assistance to the post-war military as Sri Lanka faced growing international criticism over accountability issues. Canada has taken the anti-Sri Lanka project to a new extreme by declaring Tamils were subjected to genocide. In a bid to appease powerful Diaspora groups, Canadian parliament has targeted Sri Lanka with the declaration that two former Presidents, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Gotabaya Rajapaksa, are war criminals, is a clear move to inspire countries, with large communities of Sri Lankan origin, to act in a similar fashion. Unfortunately, Sri Lanka has pathetically failed to counter the Canadian project, built on the preposterous accusation that over 40,000 Tamils perished during the final phase of the combined security forces offensive on the Vanni east front. This is despite even UN internal documents placing casualties in the north, during the final phases of fighting, to be in the region of 7000.

Blind security sector reforms:

 SPECIAL REPORT : Part 471

Published

  2023/05/24

State Defence Minister Pramitha Bandara Tennakoon greets US State Department official Afreen Akhter (pic courtesy MoD)

Assurance to US on the size of military

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The Defence Ministry recently quoted State Defence Minister, Pramitha Bandara Tennakoon, as having assured US State Department official, Afreen Akhter, that the military would be ‘right-sized’ to perform their classic role.

The assurance was given on 15 May at his office, in Colombo, just ahead of the14th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s triumph over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), when our security forces brought the war to a successful conclusion, on the morning of 19 May with the Vijayabahu Infantry Regiment (VIR) troops wiping out a small group of hardcore LTTE cadres, on the banks of the Nanthikadal lagoon. Among the dead was LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran.

Why did the State Defence Minister make such a pledge? Did Akhter, the Deputy Assistant Secretary, South and Central Asia Bureau of the State Department, seek a clarification as regards security sector reforms? If the military had continued to perform their classic role of being a ceremonial Army, the LTTE could have achieved Eelam. But the nearly three-year long sustained offensive brought the LTTE to its knees, 14 years ago.

Afreen Akhter oversees Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives, as well as the Office of Security and Transnational Affairs.

Her visit was the first by a State Department official, since National Freedom Front (NFF) leader, Wimal Weerawansa, last month alleged, in a published book ‘Nine: The Hidden Story;, that the US had a direct role in the removal of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa last year. The former industries minister is on record as having disclosed that US Ambassador here, Julie Chung, personally offered Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena an opportunity to succeed Gotabaya Rajapaksa, regardless of constitutional impediment, to bypassing Ranil Wickremesinghe, in an unannounced visit to his official residence.

Ambassador Chung swiftly rejected the allegation made no sooner ‘Nine: The Hidden Story’ was launched at the Sri Lanka Foundation on 25 April. However, Speaker Abeywardena gave credence to lawmaker Weerawansa’s shocking claim by remaining dead silent.

Since the conclusion of the war, the Mahinda Rajapaksa government quietly began downsizing the SLA, which was little above 200,000 at the height of the war. However, the present government officially acknowledged the downsizing of the war-winning, Army on 13 January, 2023. State Minister Tennakoon was quoted as having said that the SLA strength would be further reduced to 135,000 by the end of next year and 100,000 by 2030.

Of course there cannot be an issue over the need to gradually decrease military strength in peace time, taking into consideration post-war national security requirements and the pathetic economic situation, confronting the country.

Regardless of the developing political-economic-social crisis, it would be the responsibility of the military top brass to brief the political leadership of the ground situation. Post-war national security requirements shouldn’t be looked at only on the basis of economic indicators. That would be suicidal. In other words, the country is in such a precarious situation, political leadership may tend to conveniently ignore basics, especially to please Uncle Sam, the obvious king-maker here now, thereby jeopardizing the country’s national security.

Declaration that the SLA would be reduced to 100,000 by 2030 means the total strength would be cut by half, from its peak.

The Defence Ministry statement didn’t refer to any other issue. But that doesn’t mean contentious issues hadn’t been taken up with Akhter during her visit. The US continuing to needle Sri Lanka, 14 years after the eradication of the LTTE’s conventional military capability, despite Washington’s own hands dripping with so much innocent blood from so many of its worldwide military misadventures, to retain its international hegemony, is mired in continuing controversy.

The designation of Sri Lanka’s most successful Navy commander (2005-2009) Admiral of the Fleet Wasantha Karannagoda, in late April, this year, over a spate of abductions carried out in 2008-2009, at the height of the war with the world’s most ruthless terrorist outfit, as was even acknowledged by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, highlighted how the Washington establishment continues to pursue an agenda severely inimical to Sri Lanka.

Sanctioning of Karannagoda is the latest in a series of US measures directed at the war-winning military here. Among the sanctioned are Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka and General Shavendra Silva, the controversial travel ban on the celebrated wartime General Officer Commanding (GoC) of 58 Division formerly Task Force 1, the Numero Uno among the SLA fighting formations that literally took the fight to the LTTE, was imposed in Feb. 2020.

Expansion of SLA

The LTTE couldn’t have been defeated if not for the rapid expansion undertaken during the then Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka’s tenure as Commander of the Army (2005-2009). The SLA lacked the wherewithal to sustain a large scale ground offensive while deploying sufficient troops on a holding role. For want of adequate infantry battalions, the SLA couldn’t undertake large scale offensives, simultaneously. But the rapid expansion, since the launching of operations on multiple fronts, in Vanni, from 1997, paid dividends soon enough.

Sri Lanka should review post-war developments, taking into consideration the overthrowing of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in July last year. The overall failure of the security apparatus to meet the public protest campaign that had been backe, clandestinely by the US, as alleged repeatedly by lawmaker Weerawansa, quickly overwhelmed law enforcement authorities and the military. Law enforcement authorities and the military should have been prepared to meet any eventuality. Unfortunately, a public protest campaign that was launched on 31 March, last year, targeting the private residence of the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, exposed the serious weakness in overall government response to hitherto unknown threat.

Military strength should be the prerogative of the government. The Sectoral Oversight Committee on National Security, now headed by retired Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera MP, should closely examine the developments and take up matters of importance, both in and outside Parliament. It would be a grave mistake, on Sri Lanka’s part, to consider/implement defence sector reforms at the behest of literally bankrupt external powers, with sinister motives. Defence sector reforms should be in line with overall security-political doctrine, instead of piecemeal restructuring. There cannot be a better example than the then President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s readiness to enhance the SLA’s strength by nearly 100,000. That decision, taken in the aftermath of Velupillai Prabhakaran declaration of Eelam War IV, in August 2006, was perhaps the single most decisive factor in Sri Lanka’s final victory over terrorism against so many odds placed against it.

Conclusive factor

In spite of the increasing military strength, as the LTTE gradually stepped up the offensive, and, finally, its threat became conventional in 1990, Sri Lanka never gave a real boost to military personnel numbers as explained in the chart published on this page. The period from 1981 to 1987 can be categorized as the Eelam War l. The Eelam War ll and lll were fought from 1990 to 1994, and 1995 to 2001, respectively.

Sri Lanka launched Division-sized ground offensives during Eelam War lll that began with the sinking of two gunboats, berthed at the Trincomalee harbour, and the downing of two Avros, with 100 officers, and men all, in April 1995, during an informal ceasefire with the Chandrika Kumaratunga regime. But the military top brass, or the political leadership, at that time, never felt comfortable in executing a real expansion of the SLA.

In hindsight, they never wanted to go the whole hog. Operation ‘Riviresa.’ launched in Oct. 1995. was meant to bring Jaffna town under military control and consolidate government positions in the Jaffna peninsula. The operation that involved three Divisions was the largest combined security forces campaign until the Vanni campaign in 2007-2009.

However, the SLA never received the boost it desired during Eelam War lll. President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga authorized Operation ‘Jayasikurui’ (victory assured) to restore the overland Main Supply Route (MSR) to Jaffna peninsula. Having launched the offensive in May 1997, the government called it off, in 1999, following unbearable debacles. It was a miracle that the Army did not crumble at the time down to Anuradhapura or even beyond with a Commander in Chief like that, who was nothing but a cunning chatterbox with no sense of time. The government quite conveniently refrained from making a real difference on the ground by enhancing the number of infantry battalions available for ground commanders. According to the chart on this page, the SLA strength had been 117,705 officers and men (volunteers included) in 1996, the year before the launch of Operation ‘Jayasikurui’ and by 1999 when it was called off the paid strength in that particular year was 121,473.

The chart reveals a drop in the paid strength in 2000 to 116,739 in the wake of a series of humiliating battlefield defeats, culminating with the worst single debacle in the entire war when SLA abandoned the strategically located Elephant Pass base. A Division plus troops couldn’t repulse the LTTE offensive and the base collapsed in April 2000. Regardless of the Elephant Pass fall, the following year paid strength recorded a marginal increase. According to the chart, the paid strength in 2001 had been 118,331 while the strength dropped again in 2002 and 2003 during the operation of Oslo-arranged infamous Ceasefire Agreement.

The situation started gradually improving in 2004 and by 2007 paid strength stood at 151, 538. Having neutralized the LTTE in the Eastern theatre, the SLA was on the move on the Vanni west in 2007. That year marked the turning point in the war against the LTTE as the latter was overwhelmed on the Vanni front. The opening of multiple fronts on the Vanni theatre wouldn’t have been possible without the continuous flow of fresh recruits for newly raised Divisions as well as Jaffna-based formations.

It would be pertinent to mention that Sri Lanka acquired Mi-24 helicopter gunships in 1995, Kfirs in 1996, MiG27s in 2000 and a range of naval platforms since 1980s, though successive governments that ignored the need to expand the fighting strength. During the deployment of the Indian Army (July 1987- March 1990) the military ignored the basic requirement to provide sufficient troops to protect the MSR northwards from Vavuniya to Elephant Pass. The situation was so bad, Vavuniya-Elephant Pass stretch was held by isolated and poorly manned detachments at the time the LTTE resumed hostilities in June 1990 following 14-month-long ‘honeymoon’ between President Ranasinghe Premadasa and Velupillai Prabhakaran.

At the time Eelam War ll erupted in 1990, the paid SLA strength had been 60,596 whereas it consisted of 37,759 officers and men. Sri Lanka, in 2015, cancelled the war Victory Day parade following Western pressure. The last Victory Day parade was held in Matara in 2014. The rest is history.

GR’s ouster: Another narrative

 SPECIAL REPORT : Part 470

Published

  2023/05/17

Dilith Jayaweera

By Shamindra Ferdinando

Derana Chief Dilith Jayaweera says the Port City Colombo could have given Sri Lankan economy the turbo boost it required but, unfortunately, the powers that be failed to handle it properly though the country accepted the modern concept. The mega project was in line with contemporary global economy, therefore Sri Lanka’s move received global recognition, Jayaweera said, calling it a progressive economic decision.

But Sri Lanka missed the opportunity for want of a cohesive strategy as well as destructive party politics that dealt a severe blow to the flagship Chinese project, the top entrepreneur who does not shy away from speaking the truth, he said.

Jayaweera questioned the failure on the part of Sri Lanka to properly manage the Chinese flagship project, with national interest at heart, and burying petty party divisions, for the country’s sake. China launched the project in late 2014 as the country was heading for early presidential elections.

Having sabotaged the project, the then Yahapalana administration (2015-2019) went to the extent of ridiculing even the concept, thereby undermining a mega investment that could have laid the foundation to give a turbo boost to the country’s image, as well as its economy.

Their utterly irresponsible actions caused rapid erosion of investors’ confidence in the project, Jayaweera declared, and the decision to revisit a project, launched by the previous government, caused chaos. “Calls for renegotiation of the agreement resulted in inordinate delay in the implementation and the loss of investors,” Jayaweera said, declaring that the Colombo Port City was yet to receive a significant investment, since those deliberate interruptions. The Yahapalana action tainted the project as corrupt and denied investors’ confidence, hence the difficulties in attracting funds. Let me stress: “Sri Lanka couldn’t attract large scale investments because we ruined the project.”

Jayaweera said so, in an interview with The Island, at his posh office at T. B. Jayah Mawatha, a few days ago. The controversial businessman, widely believed to be one of the close associates of ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, discussed a spate of issues, ranging from the formation of ‘Aramuna’ meant to strengthen the business environment with the focus on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), collapse of the national economy, foreign relations and interventions, as well as the hand of a jealous Rajapaksa family, in the ruination of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, elected with an overwhelming majority of 6.9 mn votes.

BR-Dilith meet

Asked about course correction, attempted by him in 2021, as the country was heading rapidly towards economic catastrophe, Jayaweera said that he discussed the issue at hand with the then Finance Minister, Basil Rajapaksa, right there. Jayaweera said: “The Minister couldn’t comprehend the crisis, regardless of my efforts. In fact, Basil Rajapaksa took things lightly, very lightly. Perhaps, the Minister simply didn’t know the situation he was dealing with and the implications, in case the Rajapaksa government failed to address the growing cash flow problem.”

So was Basil part of the grand conspiracy to topple that government by playing dumb at such a crucial juncture?

Basil Rajapaksa was sworn in as the Finance Minister, on July 08, 2021, at the Presidential Secretariat. It was soon after his second entry to Parliament, on the National List, though the circumstances were vastly different.

The Rajapaksas amended the Constitution to accommodate the US, Sri Lanka dual citizen in Parliament in spite of strong opposition from a section of the ruling party. Vasudeva Nanayakkara, Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila and Gevindu Cumaratunga opposed the move. Their concerns were disregarded.

Asked what really had prompted Basil Rajapaksa to visit his spacious office, furnished much better than ministerial offices, Jayaweera explained how the President arranged for the meeting after he brought the impending crisis to the notice of the head of State. Jayaweera strongly maintained that those who had been around the President deliberately furnished him with utterly wrong estimates pertaining to the economic status. “There is absolutely no ambiguity regarding their despicable strategy. As a result of a spate of uninformed and hasty decisions, the country ended up bankrupt and at the mercy of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” Jayaweera said.

Commenting on Opposition accusations that the government intended to launch a domestic debt restructuring process, having repeatedly assured the people it would not do so, Jayaweera pointed out that this was to be done at the behest of the IMF. Debt restructuring was certainly not a national requirement at the moment though the issue at hand is why Sri Lanka shouldn’t subject itself to a domestic debt restructuring if the country expected relief from bilateral and multilateral creditors.

IMF bailout package not a panacea

for all our ills

Jayaweera accepted the writer’s suggestion that a domestic debt restructuring was a fair condition laid down by the IMF to provide the USD 2.9 bn bailout package, to be made available over a period of four years. Sri Lanka received the first tranche of the package at the end of the third week of March this year.

Jayaweera stressed that the country, as a whole, should deliberate whether debt restructuring should take place at the IMF’s directive or in line with Sri Lanka’s overall response to the current economic challenges. The media and business tycoon underscored the responsibility on the part of the government, and all other stakeholders, to examine the impact of such an exercise on the economy with the focus on the money market and the banking sector. The stakeholders should be sensitive to the developments, in case a far reaching debt restructuring process was undertaken, Jayaweera said, calling for a dialogue on the contentious and possible consensus without imposing debt restructuring as a prerequisite.

Asked to compare the latest IMF bailout package and the 16 previous ones that Sri Lanka obtained from it, Jayaweera said those engaged in talks with the lending body as well as other creditors, should be extra cautious as the country was now in the worst possible situation. “On all previous occasions when we sought IMF interventions, the economy was in a much better condition. We were in a much more comfortable environment then. But we are in the worst possible situation, today.”

Jayaweera stressed the responsibility on the part of the government to be vigilant in ongoing talks with lending bodies and other creditors. The businessman quite rightly asserted that the country was in such a precarious situation and therefore it could become vulnerable to various machinations.

During the nearly 90-minute long interview, Jayaweera was not interrupted by calls on his hand phone or the intercom, though a smartly dressed woman brought a tall glass of iced tea for the writer. Sipping the delicious iced tea, with a straw, the writer asked whether President Gotabaya Rakapaksa inadvertently did something good by refusing to seek IMF intervention in 2020. Otherwise, the country would have obtained more loans to settle debt and interest and continued the farce, perhaps for another decade, and placed the economy in an even far worse situation, Jayaweera was told.

A smiling Derana Chief responded that perhaps the President’s intention was good though he was ill-informed of how to implement it. The self-made tycoon pointed out the failure on the part of the then administration have alternative arrangements, in place, to do away with the IMF assistance. The need to meet recurrent expenditure couldn’t have been ignored under any circumstances, Jayaweera said, squarely blaming the then Secretary to the President Dr. Punchi Banda Jayasundera, and Basil Rajapaksa, for the crisis. The duo had been so reckless in taking far-reaching decisions, Jayaweera said, claiming that he didn’t believe even a small vendor would have been so irresponsible. Jayaweera cited a highly controversial Cabinet decision to do away with a spate of taxes at the first meeting of the Cabinet-of-Ministers, in the last week of Nov, 2019, less than two weeks after the last presidential election. So it looks as if the die had already been cast to doom the Presidency of Gotabaya Rajapaksa from the word go.

The government never made contingency plans to recover the losses caused by that fateful decision. The Treasury is believed to have lost as much as Rs 600 billion per year due to the abolition of taxes.

Rating agencies deliver knockout blow

Jayaweera explained how international rating agencies downgraded the country due to the significant loss of income. Once rating agencies recognized a country as a badly managed economy, that economy rapidly lost opportunity to raise loans at reasonable interest rates, Jayaweera said, emphasizing that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa shouldn’t be faulted for believing that Sri Lanka could stop taking further loans. Jayaweera again stressed that Dr. PBJ and Basil Rajapaksa should accept the responsibility for their failure to manage the economy. Instead of taking remedial measures, the government challenged those rating agencies, he said.

When the writer pointed out that Basil Rajapaksa re-entered Parliament only in the first week of July 2021, Jayaweera hit back: “That was how you viewed the situation. But what really happened? Soon after Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s victory, Basil Rajapaksa and the clan appointed Dr. PBJ as the President’s Secretary. That was done to take over the management of the economy. In spite of Basil Rajapaksa not being a lawmaker at that time, he received the appointment as somebody who managed the economy from behind the scene. And Dr. PBJ, though only the Secretary to the President, got the de-facto control of the economy.”

We don’t for a moment question the capabilities of Dr. PBJ, the former Central Banker had been seconded to the Finance Ministry, even before the time R. Paskaralingam (Pandora Papers’ fame) was the Treasury Secretary in the Premadasa regime because of his capabilities and served virtually under all regimes before and thereafter as far as we can recall. Dr. PBJ also scored big by managing the economy deftly especially during the last phase of the war as Treasury Secretary and thereafter. But the question is did he double as an “economic hitman” as alleged by some.

Jayaweera accepted the writer’s suggestion that it would be better to assert that grouping took control of the economy than blaming an individual. Jayaweera alleged that the group took advantage of the then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, who also served as the Finance Minister (Nov. 2019 to July 2021) as he was not in good health. Jayaweera explained how interested parties exploited the much deteriorated health of the former President, particularly periodic loss of memory. “I had no option but to take up this issue with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The President accepted the ugly truth.”

Jayaweera said that he sought a meeting with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to discuss the forex crisis, about 20 months ago. Having explained the looming crisis on the basis of the widening gap between government income and expenditure,

Jayaweera had got involved in an argument with President Gotabaya over the latter’s accusation that the Derana Chief misinterpreted facts as he was in dispute with Dr. PBJ. “I denied that allegation, insisting that my assessment was entirely based on official figures, also made available to the President. The President regretted the situation but scolded me. But, three or four days later, the President called me again for a meeting. I was provided with a cash flow statement. I quickly pointed out how unrealistic the income column was.”

The President’s economic team quite conveniently failed to explain the impact of rising crude oil prices at that time. That lot provided the President with unsubstantiated and unrealistic figures therefore the decisions taken on such advice caused the crisis, Jayaweera said, referring to the silly bloated assessment of USD 6 bn from tourism, whereas we know not even one bn USD income was realistic, after the Easter carnage, followed by the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic.

Jayaweera said that he contacted the President again as he couldn’t bear the impending catastrophe. Jayaweera recalled how President Gotabaya Rajapaksa suggested that he discuss the situation with Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa and the meeting took place at the very place where we met last week.

Basil Rajapaksa’s simple dismissive reaction had caused fear and anxiety in the Derana Chief, especially pertaining to the direction of the national economy, Jayaweera said, adding that over dinner, too, he tried to convince the Finance Minister of the threat due to the frightening cash flow problem.

Jayaweera quoted Basil Rajapaksa as having declared that the public wouldn’t come to the streets to protest scarcity in goods though they demonstrate against high cost of living. “I suggested that fuel consumption should be cut by 50 percent. The need for a realistic pricing formula was also suggested. But, the Minister simply dismissed my suggestions. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa himself told me Basil Rajapaksa and Dr. PBJ managed the economy. Therefore, they couldn’t absolve themselves of the responsibility for the current crisis.”

Jayaweera didn’t mince his words when he alleged that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s first major fault was accepting the family nominee Dr. PBJ as the Presidential Secretary. The President did so in spite of knowing it would be the end of his presidency, Jayaweera said.

Aramuna

vision

In this context, ‘Aramuna’ that had been established years before the public protest campaign against the Rajapaksa administration, in March 2022, was making representations on behalf of the affected communities, Jayaweera said. When queried about the recent declaration in Jaffna that they should pursue talks with banks as a group to secure much needed relief, Jayaweera explained the discussions they had with top level management of state and private banks. “We are trying to obtain as much relief as possible. But, overwhelming challenges cannot be surmounted without political will,” Jayaweera said. The outspoken ‘Aramuna’ initiator found fault with the government for shrinking the economy. That was disastrous, Jayaweera said, comparing the current situation with that of a gravely ill person deprived of medicine.

Citing the deterioration in the construction industry as a case in point (From 10 percent of the GDP to just one percent), Jayaweera said that import restrictions badly affected the export sector for want of intermediary goods. Volatile foreign currency market undermined all sectors as they found it difficult to furnish a proper quotation.

Acknowledging that certain restrictions were necessary, Jayaweera, however ,insisted that it was the responsibility of the government to properly manage the crisis by ensuring the sectors which contributed to the growth of the GDP received the support they deserved.

Jayaweera emphasized that one of their key missions was to motivate what he called human capital. If human capital lost confidence a country could face catastrophic consequences, he said, pointing out that professionals and others alike wanted to migrate in the absence of a proper strategy. Obviously, they felt concerned and not sure whether the country could overcome the unprecedented mess, Jayaweera said.

“In response to the challenge, we intended to promote entrepreneurship among the population. But, it would be important at least now to recognize the shortcomings, failures, mismanagement and unproductive investments by way of loans,” he said.

Jayaweera explained how unbridled use of loans for consumption and not sufficient returns for investments contributed to the current mess while flaying the powers that be for failing to adopt course correction even after the declaration of bankruptcy.

Responding to another query, Jayaweera said that the latest IMF intervention, too, hadn’t been sought in line with strategy to uplift the country but simply as a reaction to the crisis. He declared that nothing had changed as the existing political party apparatus continued to do the same.

Jayaweera denied any similarity whatsoever between ‘Aramuna’ and Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ‘Viyathmaga’ while insisting the former didn’t promote political strategy at all. Pointing out that at the time they established ‘Aramuna’, four years ago, it didn’t have a political outlook, Jayaweera explained in response to the current challenges, the outfit now operated on the premise that the issues at hand couldn’t be addressed without a ‘political solution.’

Asked whether ‘Aramuna’ would take a stand at the next national level election, particularly against the backdrop of the UNP propagating the possibility of presidential election before Local Government polls, the maverick businessman said that on the basis of a set of minimum conditions, meant to overcome national challenges, they would push for a consensus with most suitable party/alliance.

Need for infallible systems

Pointing out that the country suffered for want of infallible systems and recklessly having faith in people, Jayaweera was asked whether he believed in systems or politicians. This was raised on the basis of accommodating businessman Dhammika Perera on the SLPP National List, in early June 2022, and Ranil Wickremesinghe receiving appointment as President after entering Parliament on the National List, though rejected by the Colombo electorate. Jayaweera declared: “We need a system not a system change. We are in such an unstable situation, unless remedial measures were taken the country can be shut down overnight. That is the reality,” he said emphatically.

Jayaweera strongly denied the query whether he in any way influenced and benefited from the utterly reckless tax cut announced in Nov. 2019. “How could I benefit when that idiotic decision ruined our economy. What is the point in my enterprises receiving some benefits against the backdrop of economic annihilation? That decision cannot be justified under any circumstances,” Jayaweera said.

The Derana top honcho quoted the then Inland Revenue Chief having told him that there was no basis for assertion such tax cuts could trigger significant economic growth.

Jayaweera questioned the rationality in pushing for a new Anti-Terrorism law to replace the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) at a time the government should fully concentrate on economic recovery programme. An irate Jayaweera said that the new anti-Terrorism law should be at the bottom of the list of priorities.

Commenting on the leasing of Hambantota port to China for a period of 99 years in 2017, during the Yahapalana administration, for USD 1.2 bn, Jayaweera said that shouldn’t have happened, under any circumstances.

The deal deprived Sri Lanka of its most strategic asset but USD 1.2 bn received was not even used to settle the loans procured from China for the building of the harbour.

Asked whether he supported constitutional restrictions imposed on the number of ministers (30) and non-cabinet ministers (40), Jayaweera ridiculed the concept. Such constitutional interventions had been made in response to a greedy political party system. The number of ministers should be entirely based on the requirement of the government of the day and certainly not to appease greedy lawmakers, Jayaweera said, asserting that the country could manage with a much smaller Cabinet if appointments were on a scientific basis. Jayaweera also dismissed the much-touted National Government concept, too, as a mechanism to appease a far larger number lawmakers by appointing an extra-large Cabinet.

The outspoken businessman, who does not fear to call a spade a spade, asserted that print, electronic and social media would have to re-examine overall strategy as their impact on the electorate, particularly the floating vote,would be much less in the developing political-economic-crisis. It would be a grave mistake to believe the electorate could be exploited the way they did before the 2022 explosion.

The indefinite postponement of Local Government polls has deprived the JVP of an opportunity to improve its vote. Pointing out that the JVP, at the moment had just three percent of the vote, Jayaweera said that even if it doubled that it wouldn’t make a big difference. But with the relatively improved ground conditions, the JVP couldn’t sustain its strategy, Jayaweera said.

The JVP based its campaign on the allegation that the economy collapsed due to Rajapaksa corruption. Against the erosion of JVP’s new support base, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has emerged stronger and acceptable to a section of the electorate, he observed.

Finally, The Island raised two vital questions (i) who would be the two major opposing parties at the next presidential or parliamentary polls and (ii) what should be our foreign policy whether to stand with China and Russia or Quad comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India.

Jayaweera asserted that the electorate would look at the two major alliances on the basis of their economic programmes. The better grouping would win but the electorate wouldn’t ignore the nationalistic views and those who voted for Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the last presidential election as a group remained a force to be reckoned with, Jayaweera said. In the current context, President Wickremesinghe could lead one alliance and the other spearheaded by the SJB. But, both camps essentially follow the same strategies pertaining to the economy et al. The issue at hand is whether President Wickremesinghe could follow the identical strategy while receiving the backing of the ‘Pohottuwa’ vote that represented the interests of what he called ‘jahikathwa’ kandawura.

Jayaweera warned the powers that be against taking sides in the continuing US-China battle. Stressing the pivotal importance in our relations with New Delhi, Sri Lanka couldn’t afford to pursue foreign policy strategy at China’s expense, Jayaweera said. The success of Sri Lanka’s short-medium and long term recovery depends on how the country manages foreign relations. Asked whether he backed signing of MCC and SOFA against the backdrop of entering into ACSA with the US in August 2017, Jayaweera said that as he said before there is no ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer to that query, too. “We as a modern nation it is important for us to get into bilateral agreements. We need to evaluate the pros and cons of them along with a comprehensive country strategy and then decide.”