A strategic political miscalculation (II)

SPECIAL REPORT : Part 59

January 20, 2015, 12:00 pm 

by Shamindra Ferdinando

Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha (UPFA National List MP) and newly appointed Higher Education Minister, reacted sharply to the writer’s assertion that the Socialist Alliance (SA), comprising the CP (DEW Gunasekera), LSSP (Prof. Tissa Vitharana) and the Democratic Left Front (DLF) of Vasudeva Nanayakkara, had strongly opposed former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s decision to call a snap presidential election, two years ahead of scheduled date, whereas other UPFA constituents were silent.

Last week’s piece ‘A strategic political miscalculation’, in the Midweek section of ‘The Island’ of January 14th, 2015, comprehensively dealt with SA’s attempt, in late last year, to discourage the former SLFP leader from taking an unprecedented risk.

Prof. Wijesinha, in his capacity as the leader of the Liberal Party, on Oct. 9, 2014, requested the former President not to go for an early national level polls. Prof. Wijesinha’s letter followed the General Secretary, of the CP, and the then senior minister, DEW Gunasekera, on behalf of the SA, opposing the then President’s hasty decision. The veteran politician revealed the SA leadership’s hush-hush talks with the former President meant to avert, what he called, a highly risky adventure (DEW makes strong case against snap national poll-The Island, Oct 4, 2014).

The SA issued a special statement on Oct 7, 2014, opposing the former president’s plan. Declaring that there was absolutely no need for an early presidential election, the SA alleged that the SLFP had been preparing for such an election. Though the ruling coalition, or the SLFP-led government, was yet to officially decide on it. The SA reminded the former president, that the SLFP-led coalition had a two-thirds majority in parliament and, in accordance with the Constitution, national level elections, namely presidential and parliamentary, weren’t scheduled till 2016.

The government could present two budgets before the due dates for presidential and parliamentary polls, the SA said, while emphasizing the government could introduce constitutional and electoral reforms during that period.

Having reminded that the remaining period should be used to address social and economic issues, the SA also urged the SLFP to inquire into ground realities before taking any hasty decision.

Prof. Wijesinha alleged that the SLFP ignored the concerns expressed by the Liberal Party in its letter dated Oct 9, though it had been acknowledged by the then Secretary to the President, Lalith Weeratunga. "Only parties which have national ideological bases came to the conclusion that there shouldn’t be national level poll under any circumstances,"Minister Wijesinha said. Interestingly, Lalith Weeratunga has acknowledged the Liberal Party letter, on Oct. 29, 2014. Imagine taking three weeks to respond to a such an important letter. In between Prof. Wijesinha’s letter and Weeratunga’s acknowledgment, Kamal Nissanka, Secretary General, Liberal Party, strongly opposed an early presidential poll.

Prof. Wijesinha asserted that Rajapaksa wouldn’t have had to experience the ignominy of a humiliating defeat if he had only examined ground realities before calling for a national level election ahead of schedule.

The following is the full text of Prof. Wijesinha’s missive, addressed to President Rajapaksa: "At the last meeting (held on Oct 5, 2014) of the Executive Committee of the Liberal Party, it was decided, as requested by them, to support the request of the Left Parties that national elections not be held in the short term. We, too, feel that it would be better instead to embark on the reforms that have been pledged in Your Excellency’s manifesto as well as in other contexts.

These reforms should be based on the vision Your Excellency used to express regarding bringing government closer to the people, and ensuring greater responsiveness and accountability in respect of local needs. The need for devolution is something the Liberal Party has always stressed, but we have also been conscious of the need for national security. However, as we have often pointed out, giving greater responsibility to the people, and to local communities, for matters that affect them closely, on the principle of subsidiarity, is quite feasible whilst also ensuring the security of the nation.

"But devolution must also be accompanied by empowerment. So we also need to move towards developing a technologically competent younger generation, and pay much greater attention than now to maximizing human resources.

"In this regard Bills that need to be expedited include the following, which are pledged or planned

a) A new Universities Act that provides meaningful training that promotes employability free to those who need it, whilst facilitating the establishment of other centres of excellence through private/ public partnerships

b) A new Education Act that ensures holistic education, with greater stress of skills and competencies that are developed through extra-curricular activities, such as Sports and Social Service and Cultural Activities

c) A new Local Government Act that increases the power of local authorities in specific fields whilst also entrenching consultation mechanisms with provision for feedback

d) An Act to change the Electoral system so as to enhance the accountability to specific electorates of Members of Parliament, whilst also preserving proportional representation without the distortions of the current system

We must also revise Administrative and Financial Regulations, as has been agreed which is essential in response to strictures made by the Committee on Public Enterprises on which I have had the honour to serve. Such Regulations should establish consultation mechanisms such as the Jana Sabhas you mentioned, but these must be vehicles for the people, not tools for politicians. The initial steps taken by the Ministry of Public Administration in this regard should be strengthened.

It would also help to fast forward action on the National Human Rights Action Plan, as well as on the LLRC Recommendations, all of which have been approved by Cabinet. I believe the position of the government would also be immeasurably improved if the National Policy on Reconciliation were adopted.

Without such measures the decline in popularity, that we have recently witnessed, will continue. A hasty election will be seen as evidence of panic, and this can be easily exploited. On the other hand, unless there is evidence of change, the people will have no reason to continue to vote for this government, since the economics and social benefits of peace that were anticipated are no longer evident.

It would be tragic if the tremendous achievement of 2009 were to be squandered. Though it may be claimed that the Liberal Party is not in touch with electoral reality, it must also be recognized that our analysis of political developments, based on wide knowledge and established principles, have generally been accurate. Given our initial contribution to the international dimensions of the victories of 2009, we too have reason to argue for measures that will allow us to build positively on that foundation, rather than stand back and see it destroyed."

Having failed to convince the SLFP leadership to drop its controversial plan, Prof. Wijesinha switched his allegiance to Maithripala Sirisena. Regardless of their apprehension, the left parties threw their weight behind president Rajapaksa’s candidature.

In spite of his decision to quit the then government and join Maithripala Sirisena, Prof. Wijesinha strongly defended the Sri Lankan military, in a live Al Jazeera programme. The Sri Lankan military had fought a relatively clean war against the LTTE, when compared with others engaged in such operations, Prof. Wijesinha told a special live Al-Jazeera programme ‘inside story: clinging to power in Sri Lanka’, anchored by Jane Dutton, in late Nov last year.

Tamil Forum (GTF) spokesman Suren Surendiran alleged that President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government committed war crimes and crimes against humanity during the final phase of the offensive on the Vanni east front in early 2009.

The one-time head of the Sri Lanka Peace Secretariat asserted that President Rajapaksa earned the appreciation of the vast majority of the people for eradicating LTTE terrorism.

For some strange reason, the former government pathetically failed to realizt what was happening on the ground. Instead of appreciating Prof. Wijesinha’s defence, a ridiculous attempt was made by UPFA propagandists to portray him in bad light. Perhaps, the government was reacting angrily to Prof. Wijesinha’s argument that the accountability issues, raised by Geneva, couldn’t be resolved as President Rajapaksa remained in power, hence a regime change was nothing but a necessity. Opposition heavyweight Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, too, said the same several days later. Rajapakshe, the Justice Minister in the new government, didn’t mince his words when he declared that unless the electorate removed Maninda Rajapakshe, the country could be targeted by punitive international sanctions.

The only other political party to make a serious effort to change the course of the Rajapaksa administration was the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU). Unfortunately, the previous government, instead of reacting positively to the JHU’s proposals, made a despicable bid to split the party. Although the UPFA succeeded in engineering Western Provincial Council member Udaya Gammanpila’s defection, it couldn’t sabotage the JHU operation. Had the former President gave up some dictatorial features, in the executive presidential system, and agreed to retain only the defence portfolio, the SLFP could reached an understanding with the JHU. Had that happened, an early election, to secure a fresh mandate, could have been averted. But the former President had been adamant. The then SLFP National Organizer and powerful Economic Development Minister Basil Rajapaksa pushed for a snap presidential poll, though the then Defence Secretary, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, opposed the move. But the so called royal astrologer, Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena, who had immensely benefited from the previous government, predicted a comfortable victory for Rajapaksa. In fact, he went onto declare that the former President could go for 100 presidential terms, though he changed his tune within 24 hours after the conclusion of the January 8, 2015, poll.

Communist Party veteran, DEW Gunasekera, had been one of the strongest critics of the executive presidency. Although, he solidly backed Rajapaksa’s candidature, he did his utmost to avert a snap presidential poll. In fact, Gunasekera had received an assurance, from the then SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena, during the middle of last year, that he, too, strongly opposed the former President’s move. But, there hadn’t been any consultation with constituents, though, from time of time, the former leader sought the opinion of others. Had the SLFP bothered to examine what was happening, both in and outside parliament, it would have known that a major coalition was in the making. DEW Gunasekera revealed left parties’ readiness to work closely, even with the UNP, to either repeal executive presidency or do away with, what he called, dictatorial features in the system through a constitutional amendment. The understanding between the UNP and left parties had been compatible with the JHU’s proposals. DEW Gunasekera received an assurance from the UNP National Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe, that his party would back an urgent constitutional amendment to make the required changes. Although the UNP had promised to do away with the presidency, after winning the presidential election, the party adopted the JHU’s proposal that the presidency could be retained with defence portfolio under the president (UNP, UPFA red allies agree on amending Constitution with strap line Abolishing executive presidency or reducing its powers-The Island July 16, 2014).

UPFA constituent, the National Freedom Front (NFF) which threatened in May, last year, to quit the government, unless the SLFP met its demands, including far reaching constitutional reforms, meekly reached an understanding with former President Rajapaksa. Interestingly, Maithripala Sirisena had been one of the signatories to the agreement, between the SLFP and the NFF. The SLFP had absolutely no intention of honoring the agreement. But the NFF pretended as if its push had been successful. The NFF turned a blind eye to the former government involving foreign experts in domestic war crimes/accountability issues investigative process soon after the finalization of its agreement with the SLFP.

But the JHU pressed ahead with its campaign. Obviously, the SLFP leadership had been blind to the rapid deterioration of its popularity, in the wake of the Opposition campaign. Those opposed to the executive presidency convinced the electorate that either repealing of the presidential system or taking away its dictatorial features would be the panacea for Sri Lanka’s ills. The middle class and upper middle class accepted that position. The minorities too endorsed that position and the voting pattern at the recently concluded presidential poll reflected that.

While preparing for elections, the former government continued to deny its plan. On Oct 9, 2014, the day, Liberal Party leader, Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha, sent a letter urging the former president not to call for early national level poll, the then Treasury Chief, Dr. P. B. Jayasundera, assured the business community that President Mahinda Rajapaksa would present a development oriented budget for 2015, though a section of the media speculated that the government was planning to unveil a basket of goodies with an eye on the forthcoming national election.

Dr. Jayasundera was responding to reports that he was preparing a budget to facilitate the incumbent president’s re-election campaign.

President Rajapaksa was among those in the audience. The corporate sector as well as many foreign delegates attended a conclave in Colombo.

Addressing the ‘Capital Market Conference’, at the Cinnamon Lakeside, Dr. Jayasundera stressed that budget 2015 would be in line with the government strategy to strengthen the economy and infrastructure development.

The event was organized by the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), in collaboration with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka.

Dr. Jayasundera said: "Although there was a reference made in last weekend media that the 2015 Budget will be a bag full of election goodies, I can assure you that it will be a development oriented budget that is in line with the direction so set, with significant emphasis on the knowledge economy concept with which the country gained momentum."

Having ruled out ‘election goodies’, Dr. Jayasundera discussed a range of issues under the theme, ‘Take off to a High Altitude: The Transformation of the Economic Landscape in Sri Lanka’

The then Disaster Management Minister. Mahinda Amaraweera, confidently predicted a snap presidential poll in May last year. The Hambantota district MP told the writer the president would seek a fresh mandate. The outspoken politician challenged the Opposition to find a suitable presidential candidate. Amaraweera would never have thought that the SLFP’s General Secretary, Maithripala Sirisena, would take up the challenge (Be ready to face presidential poll-Minister tells Opp-The Island, May 14, 2014). One couldn’t find fault with Amaraweera for not being able to see Maithripala Sirisena’s challenge when royal astrologer, Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena, couldn’t either, in spite of being handsomely rewarded by the previous government. Had Abeygunawardena read views, expressed by Messrs DEW Gunasekera, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, Prof. Tissa Vitharana and Prof. Wijesinha, he would have realized the ground realities and advised the former president, accordingly.

A strategic political miscalculation

SPECIAL REPORT : Part 58

January 13, 2015, 7:29 pm 

By Shamindra Ferdinando

Many an eyebrow was raised during the second week of July, last year, when National Freedom Front (NFF) leader Wimal Weerawansa, MP, invited convenor of the Movement for Just Society, Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha thera, to discuss far reaching constitutional reforms, including the abolition of the executive presidency.

The breakaway faction of the JVP was on a collision course with the SLFP.

At the conclusion of the talks, Ven. Sobitha, spearheading a high profile campaign against the executive presidency, and Weerawansa, agreed to continue their discussion. The media gave wide coverage to the unexpected development at the request of the NFF. Weerawansa was flexing his muscles ahead of the Uva Provincial Council poll.

Weerawansa, the then Construction, Engineering Services, Housing and Common Amenities Minister, warned the then President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government to meet his demands or face the consequences. Weerawansa was threatening to throw his weight behind Ven. Sobitha’s campaign, unless the SLFP accepted his demands, meant to bring in far reaching constitutional reforms. Among Weerawansa’s other demands had been an immediate halt to, what was called, South African initiative meant to help post-war national reconciliation process and cancellation of foreign investigative mechanism to inquire into accountability issues.

In spite of having several rounds of talks with the SLFP, the NFF couldn’t convince the SLFP. In fact, the SLFP simply ignored NFF’s demands. Weerawansa launched a broadside against the then SLFP-led government. Weerawansa went to the extent of attacking the Rajapaksa family, while accusing the government of turning a blind eye to abject poverty. The NFF leader caused irreparable damage to the former government. Having caused a debilitating setback, Weerawansa threatened to go it alone, at the last Uva Provincial Council poll, in September, 2014. At the eleventh hour, Weerawansa contested Badulla, on its own, while contesting the Moneragala district on the UPFA ticket.

JHU teams up with

Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha

While Weerawansa distanced himself from Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha, the like - minded Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) teamed up with Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha. Their alliance quickly gained ground, though the former President made a desperate bid to reach an understanding with the influential monk in the run-up to the January 8, 2015, presidential poll. Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha and Ven. Athureliye Rathana thera, on behalf of the JHU, spearheaded a campaign that undermined the SLFP-led administration.

The Maithripala Sirisena’s camp exploited Weerawansa’s attacks on the SLFP, and the Rajapaksa family, in the run-up to recently concluded presidential poll.

Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha played a critical role in the formation of an alliance that brought an end to President Rajapaksa’s rule. Weerawansa, as well as JHU stalwart Udaya Gammanpila, who switched his allegiance to the former President, accused those Buddhist monks, backing Maithripala Sirisena, of being involved in a foreign - led conspiracy to divide the country on ethnic lines. Obviously, the Sinhala electorate didn’t take them seriously.

General Secretary of the Communist Party and senior minister, DEW Gunasekera, was the only politician to strongly oppose an early presidential poll. Having realized the former President was hell-bent on securing a third term, two years before the scheduled date, the veteran politician, along with his colleagues, senior minister Prof. Tissa Vitharana, and minister Vasudeva Nanayakkara, urged Rajapaksa not to call an early poll.

Unfortunately, the former President had been convinced of a comfortable victory, regardless of poor showing at the Uva Provincial Council poll. His astrologer, Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena, predicted an easy win for the incumbent, while several other astrologers echoed Abeygunawardena, who held two lucrative posts as Director of Independent Television Network (ITN) and the National Savings Bank (NSB). The astrologers deceived the SLFP leadership in style. Both state-run and private television stations, as well as the print media, gave them time and space to hoodwink the masses. They did it in style. An embarrassed Abeygunawardena quit both posts.

Left parties warn against

snap prez poll

Messrs Gunasekera, Nanayakkara and Vithana briefed the former President regarding the danger in having an early election. Regrettably, their plea, made in early October, 2014, was ignored. The Communist Party Chief discussed their efforts to discourage the SLFP leader from going ahead with the presidential poll. A front-page lead story, headlined DEW makes strong case against snap national polls with strap line... calls for thorough examination of ground realities before holding elections, two years ahead of schedule, on Oct 5, 2014, issue of The Island revealed the deliberations between the SLFP and the Socialist Alliance (SA) comprising CP (Dew), LSSP (Tissa) and Democratic Left Front (Vasu).

The news item: "General Secretary of the Communist Party and senior minister, Dew Gunasekera, is convinced that the ruling coalition should review its decision to go for a snap presidential election early next year, probably as early as January.

Political veteran Gunasekera, in an exclusive interview with The Island, said that the SLFP-led coalition should closely examine several critical factors before advancing the next presidential election. The National List MP said that he was speaking to the media after having discussed the issue with his ministerial colleagues, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, and Prof. Tissa Vitharana.

Asked whether the leftist parties in the coalition had launched a political project to deter the government from calling for an early national election, Minister Gunasekera emphasized that whatever their opinion, it would be the prerogative of the SLFP to set the dates for, not only national, but provincial polls, as well. "Of course, the dominant constituent of the UPFA can ignore our concerns. Regardless of the SLFP’s position, left parties felt the need to warn of possible consequences of an unneeded election at this juncture."

Gunasekera said: "Calling for either presidential or parliamentary polls, nearly two years ahead of the scheduled dates, can cause a catastrophe. As the last presidential and parliamentary polls were held in January and April, 2010, there is absolutely no need to engage in a risky political venture now."

Responding to another query, the CP chief said that the UPFA had an unprecedented two-thirds majority in parliament, as well as all Provincial Councils under its control, except the Northern Provincial Council; therefore there couldn’t be any requirement for a fresh mandate. The government still had time to present two budgets before the next presidential and parliamentary polls, in early 2016, the minister said. He pointed out that the SLMC and CWC, which contested on the UNP ticket, at the last parliamentary polls, switched their allegiance to President Rajapaksa. Their entry increased the number of members on the government side to over 160, the minister said.

Budget 2015 and budget 2016 could be used to introduce genuine reforms which would bring immense relief to the masses, struggling to make ends meet, the CP chief said.

Having admitted that he could earn the wrath of an influential section of the government, for taking an entirely a different view, the minister said that he was not seeking any personal gain at the expense of the government. Those pushing for an early presidential poll hadn’t even thoroughly examined the ground realities in the post-LTTE era, the minister said, adding that it would be a monumental challenge to secure over 50 per cent of the vote at the first count.

The possibility of having to face counting of second preference was frightening, the seasoned politician said, asserting that some political parties were preparing to exploit the situation. In case, the Illankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi - led Tamil National Alliance (TNA) fielded a candidate, the political grouping would definitely urge people to cast their second preference to UNP candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe, he said.

Referring to ongoing consultations between the TNA and UPFA constituent, the SLMC, the minister said that an alliance between them could cause a debilitating setback in the run-up to the next national election. Such an alliance would be inimical to the government, the minister said, reminding that the TNA was now free to charter its own course without having to play second fiddle to the LTTE. Government strategists couldn’t ignore the TNA factor, the minister said. "In the run-up to the November, 2005, presidential election, the TNA declared, on behalf of the LTTE, that Tamil speaking people shouldn’t exercise their franchise in support of either Mahinda Rajapaksa or Ranil Wickremesinghe. The LTTE-TNA move deprived Wickremesinghe of a substantial amount of votes. At the last presidential, the TNA directed followers to vote for former army commander, General Sarath Fonseka, instead of incumbent President, though both were accused of committing atrocities during the war."

The government couldn’t turn a blind eye to the TNA, as well as the JVP, calling their supporters to cast their second preference vote to the main Opposition candidate, having fielded presidential candidates of their own, the minister said. Both parties could end up polling 700,000 votes, or more, depending on their campaigns. "At the last presidential election, though the UNP, JVP, SLMC, CWC and the TNA campaigned together, the incumbent President emerged the clear winner. However, somewhat relatively a poor show at the recently concluded Uva Provincial Council must compel government strategists to examine ground realities. Substantial gains made by the UNP and the JVP, in the electoral districts of Badulla and Moneragala, is worrying, particularly the significant shift in the postal vote towards the Opposition."

Genuine political reforms were necessary to offset the loss of votes due to minority factor as well as the main Opposition candidate having the advantage of securing the second preferential vote.

Commenting on those who would be voting at a presidential election for the first time, the minister said that the government should also take ongoing anti-government campaign carried out by the social media. The CP veteran said that young voters could make a major impact at the next national level election, primarily due to the Opposition being attractive to them than an alliance which was in power since August 1994, except for Dec., 2001, to April, 2004. The Opposition could exploit the social media to influence the young electorate much to the discomfort of the government, Minister Gunasekera said.

The minister said that a special effort should be made to win over the young electorate. "Social changes must be studied. Just check the number of people using hand phones. Today, we have 23 million registered mobile phone owners, whereas the population is about 20 mn. We’ll have to adopt drastic reforms to ensure the Opposition doesn’t make headway at the next election."

The CP leader said that the Democratic Left Front, comprising his party as well as those political groups led by Prof. Vitharana and Vasudeva Nanayakkara, were in the process of finalizing a joint manifesto aimed at influencing far reaching reforms.

The minister said that he discussed the current political situation with MEP leader Dinesh Gunawardena, and the latter, too, agreed with him on some issues."

Thanks to astrologer Abeygunawardena and those who had remained silent when far reaching decisions were made, without proper examination of ground realities, the man who gave political leadership to Sri Lanka’s triumph over LTTE terrorism, left Office two years and two months before the next presidential poll. Actually Abeygunawardena could have done better had he at least bothered to consult Dew Gunasekera as regards the ground realities. Had the Royal astrologer been aware of extremely unfavourable conditions, particularly in the wake of UPFA’s poor show in Uva PC polls, he would probably have influenced the decision presidential poll.

Had other senior members made a determined bid to discourage the former President, a calamity could have been averted. In fact, the then SLFP General Secretary, Maithripala Sirisena, is believed to have advised against calling snap presidential poll. Unfortunately, the former leader was not in a mood to listen to reason. The writer raised the issue twice at media conferences held at SLFP headquarters, at T.B. Jayah Mawatha, but the UPFA leaders weren’t non committal. Obviously, there hadn’t been proper consultations among decision making SLFP Central Committee as well as members of the coalition. The decision had been influenced by astrology and the belief the UNP couldn’t reach an understanding with those opposed to the Rajapaksas with the JHU on one end and four-party Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on the other.

President Rajapaksa’s defeat led to the swift collapse of his government. The UPFA or the UNP-led coalition never explained the circumstances under which the UNP National Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe took oaths before newly appointed President Maithripala Sirisena as the Prime Minister immediately after Sirisena assumed presidency before senior most Supreme Court Judge K. Sripavan.

Having lost the presidential poll as well as his government which at the onset of the revolt had a two-thirds majority, the former President is struggling to retain control of the party. Twice president Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga is pressing ahead with a relentless offensive as she seeks to consolidate her position. The CBK offensive is meant to secure the support as many as UPFA MP s, particularly SLFPers before parliament meets again on January 19.

Prez poll: EU intervenes as campaign ends

SPECIAL REPORT : Part 57

January 6, 2015, 6:15 pm 

by Shamindra Ferdinando

The European Union stressed the importance of Sri Lanka's presidential election process being peaceful, credible and transparent. In a brief missive, issued on January 2, 2015, the EU Heads of Mission, in Colombo, underscored the necessity for a peaceful environment for credible elections. "Sri Lankan citizens must be free to choose their leaders without violence or fear. All parties have a role in upholding Sri Lanka's strong democratic tradition."

That message, titled joint local statement on Sri Lanka's presidential election process, reflected the stance of those who had backed the US-sponsored resolution at the Geneva-based United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) last March. In accordance with that resolution, an international war crimes probe is now underway, under the supervision of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). The EU backs the Geneva resolution. The investigation report is expected to be submitted to the next Geneva session, in March, 2015.

Over 14.8 million voters are eligible to exercise their franchise at the January 8, 2015, presidential poll - the seventh presidential election, since 1982. Incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa seeks a third term, thanks to the passage of the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, whereas Opposition candidate, Maithripala Sirisena, seeks to thwart Rajapaksa's bid.

Regardless of allegations, as regards polls violence, the run-up to the polls, tomorrow, has been relatively peaceful.

The LTTE assassinated UNP presidential candidate, Gamini Dissanayake, ahead of the Dec. 1994, presidential poll, made an abortive bid to assassinate PA presidential candidate, Mrs Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, at the final presidential poll rally, in Dec. 1999, and in Nov. 2005, the LTTE-TNA sabotaged the presidential poll. The international community never expressed concern at the LTTE-TNA strategies.

The External Affairs Ministry (EAM) swiftly responded to the EU statement. "Sri Lanka has a vibrant tradition of democratic practice, since 1931, and has been conducting elections at regular intervals, in a peaceful and orderly manner, while the electorate has continued to cast their vote freely, in large numbers," the EAM said in a statement, dated January 2.

"Domestic elections are not for foreign government representatives to be prescriptive about, that too, a few days ahead of the polls. It is therefore surprising that the EU Heads of Mission in Colombo should have resorted to a press statement on an issue of a strictly domestic nature. Such an initiative could bring into question the bona-fides and objectivity of their intervention."

"The Elections Commissioner, who is an independent authority, has been mandated by the statutory powers vested in him, with the task of conducting free and fair elections."

Polls under Indian army supervision

Unfortunately, the EAM failed, at least, to mention the EU turning a blind eye to what was happening here during national as well as provincial council polls during the conflict. In the late 80s, the national level polls, as well as the first North-Eastern Provincial Council poll, had to be conducted under the supervision of the Indian military, deployed in Northern and Eastern districts, in accordance with the Indo-Lanka peace accord of July 29, 1987.

For want of a comprehensive examination of the conflict, engineered by India, during the then Premier Indira Gandhi tenure in the 80s, Sri Lanka had experienced unprecedented violence, with the electoral process being seriously affected. Both Tamil terrorist groups, formed by India, as well as the JVP, interfered with the electoral process. Those who had been demanding accountability, on the part of Sri Lanka for alleged atrocities committed during the conflict here, turned a Nelsonian eye to what was happening on the ground. There couldn't be a better example than the Indian military rigging the first ever North-Eastern Provincial Council poll, held on Nov 19, 1988, to enable the Eelam People's Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF) to take over the temporarily merged North-Eastern Province. India had no option but install an administration loyal to New Delhi in keeping with their policy vis a vis Sri Lanka at that time. India never formally explained its intervention here nor apologized for the massive death and destruction caused in a neighboring country which never posed a threat to its national security.

The Northern and Eastern districts had been under Indian military occupation during the second presidential poll, held on Dec 19, 1988. The UNP presidential candidate and the then Premier Ranasinghe Premadasa defeated SLFP's Sirimavo Bandaranaike to succeed JRJ. India destabilized Sri Lanka to pave the way for its military intervention here before withdrawing in early March, 1990, after having established, the Tamil National Army (TNA) to strengthen the EPRLF administration. India's puppet provincial administration's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence) failed to make an impact. In fact, the EPRLF's foolish move dealt a debilitating setback to India's strategy here.

TNA, GTF on prez poll

The EU statement, on the forthcoming presidential poll, should be examined in the backdrop of the UK headquartered Global Tamil Forum (GTF), as well as Opposition presidential candidate, Maithripala Sirisena's camp, calling for incumbent President Rajapaksa's defeat for different reasons. The GTF, in late last month, declared that the war-winning president would be hauled up before the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) once he lost the forthcoming poll. The UK-based GTF spokesman, Suren Surendiran, compared President Rajapaksa's fate with that of former Liberian President Charles Taylor and Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic. Surendiran didn't mince his words when he asserted that President Rajapaksa's defeat would facilitate their project. But Surendiran stop short of calling for the Tamil electorate to exercise their franchise for Maithripala Sirisena.

Two days after the EU statement, on the presidential poll, the GTF reiterated its call for the Tamil electorate to exercise their franchise at the forthcoming presidential election. Surendiran sent the following statement to The Island, on behalf of the GTF’s President, Rev Father S J Emmanuel:"I prefer to give only one answer as to why Tamils are asked by GTF to vote and that is for the survival of democracy and the rule of law.

"We, Tamils of Sri Lanka, are unfortunately caught up in a pseudo democracy, bequeathed by the British colonials to the then Ceylon, namely a Sinhalese-Buddhist-authoritarian democracy, which, from the beginning, was an exclusive Sinhala Buddhist nationalism detrimental to all minorities.

For the last 66 years we have been victims of the worst human right violations and our democratic protests as well as our militant struggle have been crushed and even today we are labeled as separatists and terrorists and considered scape-goats for all evils in the country.

"This presidential election is unique in that it does not even speak a word about the decades of conflict, or war or the post-war atrocities, but only about failure of democracy and rule of law in the country.

"Hence Tamils, though victimized for decades, and even marginalized in this election, still have the good of the country and of all peoples at heart and wish the triumph of democracy and rule of law. It is in this spirit that Tamils have been called to exercise their franchise for the survival of democracy and rule of law."

Both, Rev. Father Emmanuel and Surendiran, called for President Rajapaksa's defeat without actually urging the Tamil electorate to vote for Maithripala Sirisena. The GTF strategy is similar to that of the JVP campaigning for President Rajapaksa's defeat without actually calling its supporters to vote for Maithripala Sirisena.

The Catholic Bishops' Conference called for people to exercise their franchise to a candidate of their choice while urging the loser to accept defeat without causing political turmoil. The Church released the statement last Friday in the wake of President Rajapaksa visiting the Madhu shrine.

Gajendrakumar takes different stand

However, the GTF political ally, the four-party Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on Dec 30, 2014, declared its support for Maithripala Sirisena. Although the electorate anticipated the TNA throwing its weight behind Maithripala Sirisena, in the wake of the SLMC quitting the government, the GTF decision is surprising. However, their decision to participate in the electoral process angered an influential section of the Tamil community, wanting the electorate to boycott the presidential poll. Leader of Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF), Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam, has urged the Tamil electorate to boycott the January 8 election. Ponnambalam has strongly opposed the TNA's decision. Ponnambalam is of the opinion that the Tamil electorate should boycott the poll, as they did in Nov. 2005. The LTTE-TNA combine ordered the Nov. 2005, boycott that deprived UNP presidential candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe, of over 400,000 anticipated votes. Wickremesinghe lost to Rajapaksa by less than 200,000 votes. Having helped Rajapaksa to win that election, the TNA backed former army commander, Gen. Sarath Fonseka, at the last presidential poll, in January, 2010.

The Tamil Net too has been generally supportive of Gajendrakumar's argument. The Tamil Net targeted TNA National List MP M.A. Sumanthiran for going for an alliance with Maithripala Sirisena to ensure President Rajapaksa's defeat. Those wanting the Tamil electorate to boycott the forthcoming poll are of the opinion that their participation in the electoral process is not beneficial to the community. The TNA - run Northern Provincial Council, too, has been divided over the same issue with some members wanting to follow the TNPF. Regardless of the TNPF's opposition, the majority seem to be satisfied with an opportunity to freely exercise their franchise.

The most influential plantation sector political party, the Ceylon Workers' Congress, found fault with the TNA stand on the forthcoming presidential poll. The CWC asserted that the TNA backing for Maithripala Sirisena was inimical to the interests of the Tamil community. The CWC backs President Rajapaksa's candidature, though many believed at the on set of the campaign Minister Arumugam Thondaman would join Maithripala Sirisena's camp, along with the SLMC and TNA. The SLMC and the TNA entered into a dialogue some time back. Their effort is meant to reach an understanding on the national issue. They seem to be confident that a victory for Maithripala Sirisena can help their cause.

UK singer calls for MR's defeat

President Rajapaksa has earned the wrath of many for giving resolute political leadership until the military brought the war against the LTTE to a successful conclusion.

Maya Arulpragasam, British national of Sri Lankan origin and ardent LTTE supporter tweeted on Friday night calling for President Rajapaksa's defeat.

The message sent from the twitter handle MIAuniverse read "Sri Lankan election is in 7 days. The people of Sri Lanka, defeat the dictatorship and get your rights back"

Arulpragasam, better known by her stage name MIA, is a British recording artist involved in an anti-Sri Lankan campaign together, with the LTTE groups active overseas.

Some pro-LTTE activists today staged a protest outside Bollywood actor Salman Khan’s residence in Mumbai on Sunday (January 4) for backing President Rajapaksa’s election campaign.

Khan was in Colombo last week with his "Kick" co-star, Jacqueline Fernandez. Maithripala Sirisena's camp took advantage of their presence in Colombo, in the wake of destructive floods, to ridicule the government. The government was accused of paying Rs 700 mn to get Khan down while the UPFA mercilessly beaten up local artistes backing Maithripala Sirisena's candidature.

"Salman Khan down down," the protestors shouted holding placards, condemning the superstar.

The demonstration, outside Salman’s Galaxy apartments in suburban Mumbai, lasted less than 15 minutes and later police detained some protestors.

MS camp on int'l sanctions

UPFA National List MP Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha, UNP MP Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, as well as Sri Lanka's former ambassador in Teheran and one-time Rupavahini Chairman, M.M. Zuhair, PC, have called for President Rajapaksa's defeat. They have urged the electorate to ensure President Rajapaksa's defeat or face the consequences. Former PA National List MP Zuhair has declared that the country has no option but to elect Maithripala Sirisena to save the country from the wrath of Western countries. Addressing a delegation, from the Young Entrepreneurs Forum, headed by S L Rajiv Jayasinghe, last Friday, Zuhair said the present government had been taking the country on a course detrimental to the best interests of its people. "We had seen how the western powers had added post war issues such as religious confrontations to the list of charges against the Rajapaksa government in the UN Human Rights Council. If there is no democratic change of governance in Sri Lanka, the country must be ready for likely US and EU sanctions before the end of this year with crippling effect on trade, banking and the economy. People will be compelled to decide between saving the country or saving President Rajapaksa. Both can be saved if there is a peaceful change of power."

The MS camp should also explain whether it believed in war crimes allegations directed at the Sri Lankan government, particularly in the backdrop of Maithripala Sirisena proudly declaring that he had held defence portfolio for few days during the last phase of the Vanni offensive. The call for the electorate to defeat President Rajapaksa to save the country from international sanctions has raised many an eye brow. Over five years after the conclusion of the conflict, the national issue remains the main issue at the forthcoming presidential poll. Maithripala Sirisena's camp strongly believes that incumbent President can be overwhelmed by the Tamil speaking electorate throwing its weight behind its man in the wake of the Sinhala Buddhist and Sinhala Catholic vote being sharply divided. The Opposition is of the view that the JHU switching its allegiance to Maithripala Sirisena has dealt a crippling blow to President Rajapaksa bid to secure a third term. The government remains confident the JHU's move will not have any bearing on the outcome of the Presidential poll, 2015.

Can Tamil electorate be influenced by TNA-GTF in absence of war?

Second post-war prez poll:

SPECIAL REPORT : Part 56

December 30, 2014, 5:59 pm 

by Shamindra Ferdinando

The then President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga authorized the closure of five entry/exit points, manned by the army, in the Batticaloa and Vavuniya electoral districts, on Dec 5, 2001.

Kumaratunga issued the directive on Dec 4, the day before the countrywide parliamentary elections. Acting at the behest of President Kumaratunga, the then Army Chief, Lt. General Lionel Balagalle, closed the entry/exit points at Piramanalankulam (Vavuniya) and Chenkaladi, Kiran, Vaunathivu and Mankerni (Batticaloa). That deprived those living in areas under LTTE control from exercising their franchise at the parliamentary election. The presidential directive was meant to prevent voters from crossing entry/exit point to cast their votes at cluster polling booths established in villages situated close to the front lines.

The Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) accused the People’s Alliance government of depriving the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) of thousands of votes. The TNA, comprising four political parties, namely the TULF, TELO, PLOTE and EPRLF, contested on the TULF ticket.

Interestingly, two entry/exit points, in the Batticaloa electoral district, manned by the elite Special Task Force (STF) remained opened for several hours. By the time the government had ordered them closed, at 1.30 pm, as many as 20,000 crossed the lines to exercise their franchise. The then Batticaloa Government Agent, Sinnathamby Shanmugam, confirmed that voters had been denied an opportunity to exercise their franchise at a crucial election. Shanmugam asserted that of some 50,000 registered voters, living in areas under LTTE control about half were able to cast their votes due to a lapse on the part of the government to also direct the STF, to close down entry/exit points under its control. The then Vavuniya Government Agent, K. Ganesh, revealed that about 17,000 registered voters, in the Vanni, and about 10,000, in the Mannar electoral district, couldn’t cast their votes. (Government closes some north-east entry points: 50,000 prevented from voting-The Island, Dec 6, 2001).

SLA on closure of entry/exit points

Army Headquarters claim that entry/exit points had to be closed to prevent LTTE cadres infiltrating government-held areas, in the guise of voters. The then Army spokesman, Brigadier Sanath Karunaratne, declared that it was the best course of action, in the wake of intelligence reports pertaining to LTTE taking advantage of the situation. The TULF rejected Brigadier Karunaratne’s claim. The Army never explained the failure, on its part, to direct the STF to close the entry/exit points under its control.

A recent statement issued by the UK headquartered Global Tamil Forum (GTF), as regards the forthcoming presidential election, should be examined in the backdrop of having national level elections in war-time Sri Lanka. Twice President Kumaratunga is spearheading Opposition presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena’s campaign.

GTF spokesman, Suren Surendiran, urged the Tamil electorate to exercise their franchise at the second post-war presidential poll carefully. The GTF official said that Tamils living in all parts of the country should participate in the 2015 presidential poll.

Surendiran said: "Tamil people have a long history of voting, based on principled considerations. The upcoming Presidential election is no different."

"GTF is fully aware that in the post-independent Sri Lanka, Tamil people have continuously lost their rights under a flawed majoritarian electoral system. Their desire to have a degree of control in the Tamil majority areas was never granted, despite repeated democratic expressions of their wishes through all available electoral means."

"Nevertheless, from our perspective, whether Sri Lanka should continue in the same path or whether change should be taken at this juncture, to stop and reverse this trajectory, is the fundamental question facing the electorate."

Sri Lankan Tamils living abroad formed the GTF in the wake of the LTTE’s battlefield defeat, in May 2009.

The government ignored the then Election Commissioner Dayananda Disanayake’s request to re-open all entry/exit points. Interestingly, the polls chief had raised the issue with Chandrananda Silva, who, after having relinquished duties as Commissioner of Elections, received an appointment as Secretary to the Ministry of Defence.

EU on CBK’s more

Mrs. Kumaratunga’s government earned the condemnation of the European Union. The EU strongly condemned the denial of voting rights to a section of the Tamil speaking voters and, thereby denying them the opportunity to exercise their franchise. Head of the EU monitoring mission, John Cushnahan, said: "There is no justification for closing these entry points. This is to prevent people living in uncleared areas from coming to vote at cluster polling stations. Outspoken Cushnahan emphasized that the Sri Lankan government’s move was totally unacceptable and it would have a significant impact on the outcome of the results in the Vanni and Batticaloa electoral districts.

In spite of government interference, the TNA polled 41,950 votes in the Vanni electoral district to secure three seats, the UNP obtained 26,575 votes to win two seats, while the Democratic People’s Liberation Front (DPLF) secured one seat. The DPLF polled 9,614 votes. In Batticaloa, the TNA polled 86,284 votes to win three seats, while the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) obtained 26,725 votes to secure one seat. The PA managed to win one seat by polling 25,705 votes.

The UNP-led United National Front emerged victorious by winning 109 seats, whereas the PA managed 77 seats. The TULF won 15 seats.

Having won the parliamentary election, newly elected Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe swiftly moved to reach an agreement with the LTTE. Norway finalized a Ceasefire Agreement, on February 21, 2002.

Administration loyal to

New Delhi installed

In the run-up to the Dec 5, 2001, parliamentary election, the TNA endorsed the LTTE as the sole representatives of the Tamil speaking people. The TNA acknowledged that the LTTE would represent the Tamil speaking people at all future elections. Having lost several key leaders, including A. Amirthalingham and Vettivelu Yogeswaran, the Tamil political leadership had no option but to accept the LTTE’s leadership or face the consequences. The LTTE remained in charge of the Tamils’ destiny for a decade, until the Sri Lankan military eradicated the LTTE in May, 2009. The three-year long combined security forces operation paved the way for President Mahinda Rajapaksa to conduct the Northern Provincial Council election in September, 2013. The ITAK-led TNA emerged victorious at the poll. Unfortunately, the TNA had conveniently forgotten that the Northern Provincial Council election couldn’t be conducted, even through the Northern and Eastern Provinces were merged in September, 1988, in accordance with the Indo-Lanka Accord of July, 1987. The merger was to pave the way for elections in November, 1988. The Indian Army deployed here (July 1987 to March 1990) under Indo-Lanka Accord rigged the election in the Northern Province to ensure victory for two terrorist groups – The Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Organization (EPRLF) and the Eelam National Democratic Liberation Front (ENDLF). They secured all 36 seats in the Northern Province uncontested. However, elections was held in the Eastern Province, where the EPRLF and ENDLF won 12 and 5 seats, respectively, though the SLMC emerged victories with 17 seats. The UNP managed to secure one seat. The Indian Army threw its weight behind the EPRLF and ENDLF in the Eastern Province. The Indian Army was carrying out directives, issued from New Delhi.

Those demanding free and fair election never even bothered to issue a statement condemning India for rigging an important election. The JRJ administration couldn’t interfere with the Indian strategy, meant to ensure an administration, in Sri Lanka’s North-East, loyal to New Delhi. Having installed the EPRLF-led administration, India created the Tamil National Army (TNA) to protect the outfit. The TNA undermined the then President Ranasinghe Premadasa’s government.

The Dec, 1988, presidential and the Feb, 1989, parliamentary elections were also conducted in the temporarily merged North-Eastern Province, under the supervision of the Indian Army. At the presidential elections, the then Prime Minister Ranasinghe Premadasa defeated SLFP’s Sirimavo Bandaranaike in a close race, marred by violence. Premadasa was sworn in as JRJ’s successor, on Jan 2, 1989. In February, Premadasa led the UNP to a comfortable victory in the parliamentary polling, capturing 125 of the 225 seats under a new proportional voting system. Both presidential and parliamentary polls took place before Premadasa reached an understanding, in May, 1989 to pave the way for talks with the LTTE. The Premadasa-LTTE talks collapsed in June, 1990.

Sri Lanka’s failure

There had never been an inquiry into the conduct of the Indian Army, and other personnel, during their deployment here. The rigging of the North-Eastern Provincial Council poll had far reaching consequences with President Premadasa having to join hands with the LTTE to oust the provincial administration, installed by India. Sri Lanka paid a very heavy price for the Indian folly. Sri Lanka’s failure to conduct a proper investigation, into Indian intervention here is inexcusable and strange in the backdrop of Western powers launching an investigation in accordance with the resolution adopted at the Geneva-based United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) at the March, 2014, sessions.

Whether President Rajapaksa liked it or not regardless of the outcome of the January 8, 2015, presidential election, Sri Lanka is facing an unprecedented situation in Geneva. With the UNHRC expected to receive a comprehensive report on Sri Lanka, in March, 2015, the stage is now set for a major diplomatic issue within weeks after the next presidential poll. The UNP-led Opposition, on Dec 21, 2015, declared that a victory for Opposition presidential candidate, Maithripala Sirisena, at the January 8, 2015, poll would help settle accountability issues/war crimes charges raised by the Geneva-based United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC).

Addressing the media, at the Opposition Leader’s Office, at Sir Marcus Fernando Mawatha, UNP strategist, MP Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, PC, stressed that as re-election of incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa for a third term would be inimical to Sri Lanka’s interests, people should vote for Maithripala Sirisena.

MP Rajapakshe said that those struggling to make ends meet would have to face the consequences in case President Rajapaksa won the election. The MP mentioned the possibility of the country having to face economic sanctions unless the forthcoming presidential election brought an end to President Rajapaksa’s rule.

PC Rajapakshe said that only a new government could defeat foreign elements working against the country.

The Opposition spokesman assured that it would protect defeated President Rajapaksa from being hauled up before an international war crimes tribunal.

Al Jazeera interview

MP Rajapakshe echoed UPFA National List MP Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha. The MP expressed similar opinion at a live Al Jazeera programme ‘Inside story: clinging to power in Sri Lanka’, anchored by Jane Dutton, involving UNP MP Dr. Harsha De Silva and GTF spokesman Suren Surendiran, before Maithripala Sirisena declared his candidature at the presidential poll. However, Prof. Wijesinha, in response to war crimes allegation, said that the Sri Lankan military had fought a relatively clean war against the LTTE, when compared with others engaged in such operations.

Al Jazeera aired the programme the day before Maithripala Sirisena quit the government.

Surendiran’s recent call for the Tamil electorate to exercise their franchise, carefully, at the forthcoming presidential poll, should be examined, having his declarations, during Al Jazeera programme, in mind.

Joining the programme from Dublin, Surendiran, the UK-based GTF’s Director of Strategic Initiative, predicted that the UNHRC would bring out a damning report in March, 2015, almost accusing the government of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. The GTF official alleged Sri Lanka’s economy had been dwindling, foreign reserves sharply down with the IMF demanding the government to drastically reduce public expenditure. Surendiran alleged that people couldn’t even feed their own families in the wake of rising inflation. Surendiran said: "The security situation is poor and the judiciary politicized."

Calling Sri Lanka a nationalist state, Surendiran said that President Rajapaksa hadn’t addressed the Tamil grievances, even after the conclusion of the conflict. The GTF official said that both the international community and the Tamil speaking people wanted President Rajapaksa to provide a political solution to the national problem. Surendiran accused the government of causing racial hatred among communities while specifically identifying the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS)as a government tool used against other communities.

Surendiran further alleged that Sri Lanka’s relationship with India was in an extremely bad position.

Responding to Prof. Wijesinha, an irate Surendiran said that President Rajapaksa had been accused of war crimes. Some had accused him of conducting a genocidal war against the Tamil speaking people. Surendiran warned that President Rajapaksa, too, would be hauled up before the International Criminal Court the way one-time Liberian President, Charles Taylor, and Serb leader, Slobodan Milosevic, had been. Surendiran queried Prof. Wijesinha the basis for his assumption that the Sri Lankan military fought a relatively a clean war, when over 140,000 civilians died at their hands. The GTF spokesman alleged that the military also executed surrendering LTTE cadres and civilians, killed an 11-year-old (possible reference to the killing of LTTE leader Prabhakaran’s son) et al.

Would the five-party TNA be able to influence the Tamil electorate at the forthcoming poll? At the Nov. 1994, presidential poll, they contributed overwhelming for Mrs Kumaratunga’s victory. She wouldn’t have been able to poll a staggering 62.28 per cent of the total votes received, at that poll, if not for the Tamil electorate backing her, on the belief the LTTE assassinated UNP candidate Gamini Dissanayake, to ensure her victory. At the Dec. 1999, presidential poll, the LTTE made a bid to assassinate her because the group felt it could reach a settlement in case UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe emerged victorious. The LTTE engineered Wickremesinghe’s defeat at the Nov, 2005, presidential poll because it obviously believed a naive Rajapaksa could be militarily defeated. Consequent to the LTTE’s humiliating defeat, the TNA threw its lot with former army Commander Gen. Sarath Fonseka, at the last presidential poll in January, 2010.

With the TNA now being divided over whom it should support, at the next presidential poll, what would be its official stance. In the backdrop of the TNA and GTF having close relations, would it be prudent to believe that the GTF statements reflected TNA the stand at the presidential poll?