SPECIAL REPORT : Part 328
August 5, 2020
2020 general election:
By Shamindra Ferdinando
The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), expected to comfortably win today’s parliamentary polls, has never been represented in parliament.
The SLPP is confident of a comfortable, simple majority, though, publicly, its leadership vows to secure a two-thirds majority. A two-thirds majority that hadn’t been achieved by any political party since the introduction of the Proportional Representation (PR) system, at the 1989 parliamentary polls, seems unrealistic.
The Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), certain to win the second highest number of seats, has also never been in parliament. The SLPP and SJB are led by prime ministerial aspirants, Mahinda Rajapaksa (74) and Sajith Premadasa (53), respectively.
There are similarities in the SLPP and the SJB. Political strategist Basil Rajapaksa got the Lanka Jathika Peramuna (LJP) re-named as the Ape Sri Lanka Nidahas Peramuna, a few weeks before the 2015 August parliamentary polls, and then again registered the party as Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, on Nov 1, 2016. Former external affairs minister Prof. G.L. Peiris and Attorney-at-Law Sagara Kariyawasam received appointment as the Chairman, and Secretary, of the SLPP, respectively.
If not for the last minute agreement, between the Mahinda Rajapaksa’s group and the SLFP, the former was to contest the 2015 August parliamentary election, under the Ape Sri Lanka Nidahas Peramuna ticket.
In early 2020, Ape Jathika Peramuna (AJP) was re-named Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). Sajith Premadasa and Ranjith Madduma Bandara received appointments as the Leader, and the Secretary of the SJB respectively. Both the LJP and the AJP had been totally ineffective, as political parties, though, today, they enjoyed political clout.
Of the seven previous general elections, since 1989, simple majority had been secured by the winning party twice, in 1989 (UNP) and 2010 (UPFA) during the second JVP-inspired insurgency, and the first countrywide poll, after the annihilation of the LTTE, in May 2009.
For the first time, the parliament will recognize two parties hitherto not represented in the House. Both the SLPP and the SJB emerged as major parties, at the expense of the SLFP and the UNP respectively, during the previous administration. The newcomers changed the political landscape completely. The SLFP ended up, at the 2020 general election, contesting all districts, except Jaffna and Kalutara, under the SLPP ticket, whereas the badly depleted UNP is likely to take a distant third place, in terms of the numbers of seats. The SLFP, too, is expected to be reduced to less than 10 seats.
The SJB is most likely to secure more than double, perhaps treble the number of seats won by the UNP at today’s poll, the third since the successful conclusion of the war, 11 years ago.
Before discussing the delayed 2020 poll further, it would be pertinent to mention the composition of the last parliament (August 2015-March 2020). As the writer pointed out earlier, the SLPP and the SJB hadn’t been represented in any of the previous parliaments. The last parliament consisted of UNP (106), UPFA (95), TNA (16), JVP (6), SLMC (1) and EPDP (1). Having fielded its candidates, under the UNP ticket, in most districts, at the last election, the SLMC won just one seat.
The JHU, ACMC and Tamil Progressive Front, too contested under the UNP ticket at the last election, but have now switched their allegiance to Sajith Premadasa like the SLMC, at the expense of beleaguered Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Of the 106 elected, and appointed, on the UNP ticket, at the last election, over 80 are in the fray, on the SJB ticket, whereas Wickremesinghe managed to retain about a dozen. Speaker Karu Jayasuriya is among those who opted not to contest again. Jayasuriya, who had received significant backing from some members of the party, as well as a section of the civil society, to come forward as their presidential candidate, in 2019, quit the parliamentary contest, after having failed to thwart the break-up of the party.
Former National List member, Malik Samarawickrema, a close associate of Wickremesinghe, too, quit parliamentary politics. So did Mangala Samaraweera after having entered the fray from the Matara District on the SJB ticket.
Deputy Speaker Ananda Kumarasiri, who headed the high profile parliamentary probe into the 2019 Easter Sunday carnage, ended up in the SJB’s Moneragala District nominations list.
Having handsomely won the 2018 February Local Government election and the 2019 November presidential poll, the SLPP faces the parliamentary poll confidently. The SJB knows of its inevitable defeat at today’s poll, though it seems happy breaking away from Wickremesinghe for once and for all.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who never bothered to take the membership of the SLPP, in spite being its presidential candidate, spearheaded the parliamentary polls campaign. There had never been a president, previously, who shunned political party membership. In other words, the cabinet is headed by a person, who is apolitical, a situation never experienced before.
Politicians, former Member of Parliament and various other interested parties, speculated about the number of seats that could be obtained by contesting parties. A former lawmaker, a respected professional, asserted that the SLPP might secure about 118, SJB 64, UNP 15, Tamil political parties 19 and the JVP 9. The former MP is of the view that frustrated UNPers and Muslims may vote for the JVP led Jathika Jana Balavegaya, hence the opportunity to improve its position in parliament. But its image has been somewhat tarnished after having been seen as a passive partner of the UNP during the last regime. The UNP being a right wing party throughout its history is anathema to any true Marxist and its leader was clearly involved in the brutal crushing of the JVP’s second uprising in the late 80s and killing of its then entire leadership, barring late Somawansa Amarasinghe, who survived by fleeing abroad.
The JVP fielded its candidates, through a coalition, in a bid to attract wider support at the expense of contesting under its own symbol. The JVP will find it difficult to at least retain the number of seats it received at the last parliamentary election. The six-member JVP parliamentary group included two National List members (defeated candidates Sunil Handunnetti and Bimal Ratnayake).
SJB survives unexpected onslaught
Sajith Premadasa’s SJB experienced unexpected onslaught in the run-up to the Aug 5 poll. UNP
Colombo district candidate, Oshala Herath, caused quite a stir by challenging the EC over the re-naming of the Ape Jathika Peramuna (AJP) as the SJB under controversial circumstances. The deal earned AJP Secretary Diana Gamage a slot in the SJB National List.
Having unsuccessfully moved the Supreme Court against the EC, in this regard, Herath, who had twice served President Maithripla Sirisena’s staff, received UNP membership and an opportunity to contest.
Before Herath received UNP membership, as well as nomination, Sirikotha declared that the party had nothing to do with the court action. Subsequently, Herath lodged a complaint with the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) as he pushed hard to disqualify the SJB.
In spite of his own party disowning him, the social media activist took on EC Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya. Herath released recorded conversations with Deshapriya as well as recordings at a church in Rajagiriya where he met Deshapriya in the company of UNP Assistant Leader Ravi Karunanayake in a bid to settle the matter. However, the SJB had the last laugh when all other contesting political parties accepted the EC’s version of events.
The UNP refrained from exploiting Herath’s shocking revelations that may have caused quite serious problems for the SJB. In a way, the SJB should be grateful to the UNP for not jeopardizing its campaign.
The SLPP and the JVP, too, conveniently refrained from taking up the issue, while election monitors, too, played it safe, much to the disappointment of Herath whose emergence as a UNP candidate, especially from Colombo, was made possible by the unprecedented UNP split.
Of the 11 elected from the Colombo district, at the last general election, eight (Patali Champika Ranawaka, Hirunika Premachandra, Dr. Harsha de Silva, Mujibur Rahman, S.M. Marikkar, Mano Ganesan, Eran Wickramaratne and Sujeewa Senasinghe), switched allegiance to Sajith Premadasa, who moved from Hambantota to Colombo. Except Eran Wickremaratne who opted to join the SJB National List, others are in the fray. Only Ravi Karunanayake remained with Wickremesinghe while the remaining ex-lawmaker Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakse, PC, joined the SLPP.
A humiliated UNP struggled to field a team in Colombo. Its list is undoubtedly the weakest ever fielded in Colombo. The UNP in its desperation even accommodated tainted businessman A.S.P. Liyanage, who had received diplomatic postings both from Presidents, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena for being publicly servile to them. Of the 22 UNP candidates fielded in Colombo, there were only four former members of parliament (Ranil Wickremesinghe, Ravi Karunanayake, Daya Gamage and Sunethra Ranasinghe). Daya Gamage contested the last parliamentary polls from Digamadulla, while Sunethra Ranasinghe hadn’t been in parliament in its last term.
Oshala Herath is among those lucky to receive UNP nomination due to damaging split caused by dissidents. However, he proved his mettle as a fighter by pursuing an unprecedented strategy that exposed the utterly corrupt political set up.
UNP leader Wickremesinghe, SJB leader Premadasa and JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake are in the fray in Colombo. Premadasa, who lost the last presidential election by a staggering 1.3 mn votes to Gotabaya Rajapaksa, is expected to win his contest with his former leader. Will Premadasa be able to poll the highest number of preferences in Colombo by a candidate representing any party? Or will retired Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera, or National Freedom Front leader Wimal Weerawansa, both contesting on the SLPP ticket take the honours.
Weerasekera is among nine candidates fielded by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, through his ‘Viyathmaga’ organization. Other ‘Viyathmaga’ contestants are Dr. Nalaka Godahewa (Gampaha), Anura Fernando (Colombo), Engineer Nalaka Kottegoda (Matale), Dr. Tilak Rajapaksha (Digamadulla), Dr. Upul Galapatti (Hambantota), Prof. Channa Jayasumana (Anuradhapura), Prof. Gunapala Ratnasekera (Kurunegala) and Attorney-at-Law Udayana Kirindigoda (Mahanuwara). The SLPP has also accommodated two ‘Viyathmaga’ members, Ajith Nivard Cabraal and Dr. Seetha Arambepola, on its National List.
Ratnapura HC ruling, other issues rattle SLPP
If not for the unprecedented crisis caused by the corona epidemic, the SLPP could have easily secured victory at the parliamentary polls, originally scheduled to take place on April 25. Unfortunately, for the SLPP, corona derailed its plans. However, even if election was held in a corona-free environment, as previously scheduled, the ruling party couldn’t have obtained a two-thirds majority. Seeking two-thirds, in terms of the PR system, is not possible at all.
Had the election been held on April 25 as previously scheduled, the SLPP could have avoided the fallout of the demolition of a part of an historical building in Kurunegala and death sentence given to an SLPP candidate. The delay, on the part of the government, resulted in some protests. A section of the assembly hall of King Bhuvanaikabahu II had been demolished on the orders of the Kurunegala Mayor. A divided SLPP struggled to cope up with the issue as Kurunegala heavyweight Johnston Fernando; one-time UNPer threw his weight behind the Kurunegala Mayor. The SLPP could have also avoided Ratnapura HC sentencing Ratnapura District candidate Premalal Jayasekera to death over his involvement in the 2015 January political murder, in the Kahawatte area on the eve of the January 2015 presidential election.
The protests by Colombo port workers, over Sri Lanka’s deal with India against the transfer of control of the ECT (East Container Terminal), too, disturbed the government as it sought Indian financial backing to overcome the crises caused by the corona pandemic. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Premier Mahinda
Rajapaksa seeking Indian Premier Modi’s intervention, in the last week of May, led to July negotiations on re-scheduling of Lanka’s debt repayments.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa faces an unprecedented challenge. In fact, the economic challenge is even bigger than the conventional LTTE threat, previous presidents faced. Under the former Defence Secretary’s leadership, the new administration will have to work with the Opposition, whether it likes it or not, if it is genuinely interested in the wellbeing of the country. However, the SJB is unlikely to provide the required support, in parliament, to do away with the 19th Amendment, though the two parties can explore ways and means of reaching consensus on some matters.
With the country is in such a bad shape, economically, pivotal importance of consensus, among those political parties represented in parliament, at least between the government and the main Opposition, cannot be ignored.
The SLPP cannot pursue strategies, disregarding ground realities. With nearly one fifth of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s five-year term over, the SLPP has no option but to move fast, without getting embroiled in useless political dogfights.
Let us hope political parties wouldn’t seek to do away with the provision in the 19th Amendment to appoint no more than 30 ministers. The UNP conveniently reached an agreement with a section of the SLFP to form a national government in the wake of the 2015 general election. The UNP-SLFP arrangement paved the way for them to appoint more than 30 ministers, at the expense of the much-touted good governance promise.
Challenges in 2020 and beyond
The parliament comprises 196 elected and 29 appointed members. The SLPP and the SJB will face daunting challenge in picking their National List members. In the last parliament, the UNP had 13 National List slots, the UPFA 12, the TNA 2 and the JVP 2. The lion’s share of 29 National List slots is expected to be shared by the SLPP and the SJB, with the UNP most likely to obtain a couple of slots, though very much lower than the last time. The SLPP faces the daunting task in forming a 30-member cabinet with the inclusion of some new members. Will any successful ‘Viyathmaga’ candidates receive cabinet portfolios?
With the new parliament, scheduled to meet on August 20, the SLPP will have an opportunity to explore the possibility in reaching a consensus, with the Opposition, to secure the required two-thirds. If not there is bound to be plenty of horse trading to secure that illusive majority.
The case of misappropriation of billions of rupees that was lying at the Central Cultural Fund is certain to be a big stink with the active support of the UNP as was seen in the document leaked to the Sunday Times last weekend. Since Sajith Premadasa has much to answer it would be quite interesting how he deals with the victorious SLPP.
The government will have to address several issues. Among the contentious issues are (1) the proposed agreements with the US (MCC and SOFA) as President Sirisena finalized ACSA in August 2017, the controversial Singapore–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement, entered into in January 2018, co-sponsorship of the Geneva Resolution, in Oct 2015, bringing investigations into Central Bank bond scams to a successful end, tangible action on forensic reports that dealt with Treasury bond scams, and other major financial irregularities, both during UPFA and UNP-SLFP administrations, and the toxic UK garbage dumped, in the port of Colombo, et al. With the national economy in tatters, the parliament, as an institution, will have to play its classic role.
Ensuring financial discipline, and the introduction of new laws, must be the parliament’s primary objective, neglected by successive governments, over the years. It would be pertinent to remind what no less a person than the former Central Bank Governor Dr. Indrajith Coomaraswamy said before the Presidential Commission, probing public sector corruption. Coomaraswamy urged the electorate to elect lawmakers capable of understanding public finance.
Dr Coomaraswamy said that the country was facing a non-virtuous cycle of debt and it was a very fragile situation which could even lead to a debt crisis. Arjuna Mahendran’s successor said that people should elect MPs who were prudent enough to handle fiscal and monetary matters of the country. “I’m not referring to any government, but it’s been the case ever since independence.
