SPECIAL REPORT : Part 423
By Shamindra Ferdinando
The Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) recently dealt with the relevance of political stability for national security. Dr. Prathibha Mahanamahewa, and Director/CEO Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Training Institute Malinda Seneviratne, a former colleague of ours at The Island editorial, addressed the issues at hand. Acting Director General of the INSS Rear Admiral Dimuthu Gunawardene, who is also the Director of Communications and Publications of the outfit, moderated the event.
The Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) recently dealt with the relevance of political stability for national security. Dr. Prathibha Mahanamahewa, and Director/CEO Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Training Institute Malinda Seneviratne, a former colleague of ours at The Island editorial, addressed the issues at hand. Acting Director General of the INSS Rear Admiral Dimuthu Gunawardene, who is also the Director of Communications and Publications of the outfit, moderated the event.Defence Ministry Media spokesperson Colonel Nalin Herath, in a statement issued on June 09, quoted Dr. Mahanamahewa as having told the gathering that the mismanagement of resources, absence of timely decisions, and corruption, caused political instability. The academic was further quoted as having stressed that political stability would automatically ensure national security. A former Commissioner of the Human Rights Commission asserted that a new Constitution would help maintain political stability.
Political commentator Seneviratne had focused on external threats, primarily the LTTE rump/Tamil Diaspora. Seneviratne had been quite convincing in his arguments. The brief Defence Ministry statement on the event held via zoom on June 07 obviously covered just a fraction of what Dr. Mahanamahewa and Seneviratne had said.
The INSS probably wouldn’t have taken up this particular subject if not for the current economic-political and social crisis that has totally eroded public confidence in the incumbent dispensation. In fact, the public has lost faith in the utterly corrupt entire political party setup with a large segment of the population loudly questioning the dependability of the parliamentary system. The INSS aptly titled the event ‘importance of political stability for national security.’
The INSS can inquire into how the recent Aeroflot drama, at the Bandaranaike International Airport (BIA), undermined Sri Lanka’s relations with Russia, thereby impacting the overall stability. Can Sri Lanka afford to antagonize a friendly UN Security Council member, one of the two who have always stood by us, the other being China, always supportive of Colombo, regardless of the party in power here. If not for their veto power, the West would have bulldozed us into accepting their terms through resolutions at the powerful UN Security Council, especially on so-called war crimes where they have been out to nail our victorious security forces on, for unbelievably defeating LTTE terrorists, in the battlefield, against their wishes.
It would be pertinent to ask whether INSS in any way had inquired into the political, economic and social developments in the run-up to the massive explosion of public anger in late March this year. The intelligence services, too, seemed to have completely ignored the swelling up of public anger over shortage of essential items, including food, and the skyrocketing cost of living, until it was too late.
The INSS should have factored in Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena’s declaration that the country is fast heading towards an unprecedented famine. PM Wickremesinghe and many others say the same though they do not provide solutions.
Can the current crisis be simply addressed by restoring political stability? What really caused the current and still worsening crisis that has bankrupted the country? The political as well as the military leadership should realize political stability achieved by a near 2/3 majority in Parliament in the wake of an overwhelming triumph for the same party at the presidential election contributed to the catastrophe. That is the undeniable truth.
Having secured the Nov 2019 presidential election with an overpowering majority, the SLPP won a commanding 145 seats in the 220-member Parliament at the Aug 2020 parliamentary election. The Colombo Port City Economic Commission Bill received 149 votes in May 2021. Seven months before, the 20th Amendment to the Constitution received a staggering 156 votes. The SLPP acted as it didn’t expect any trouble. The electorate was repeatedly told the 20th Amendment would ensure political stability while the passage of the Colombo Port City Commission Bill would attract the required foreign direct investments.
The arrogant and over confident SLPP leadership ignored warning signals. Perhaps the government could have managed to sustain the national economy if the Covid-19 pandemic didn’t almost totally disrupt the tourism sector, with the crippling of international travel, and also caused a sharp drop in foreign remittances, with a large number Sri Lankan migrant workers having to return home. Even those who retained their jobs in West Asia often got their wages reduced or got them after delays. Things were further compounded by the government having to repatriate workers and having to spend valuable foreign exchange to procure vaccines and other related pharmaceuticals.
Now, adding to the country’s woes, is the fallout from Russia’s incursion into Ukraine and the US rather foolishly using that to blead Kremlin to death. That is already endangering world food security and disrupting the supply of other essentials, like oil, coal etc., while also causing record inflation worldwide.
Still, the government could have successfully addressed the growing threat if it responded positively to a warning issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in early 2020. But, the Cabinet of Ministers, chaired by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, turned a blind eye to the IMF call for an immediate debt restructuring programme. The IMF response was to Sri Lanka’s request for a Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) made in early 2020. The outspoken Governor of the Central Bank Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe is now on record as having told the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) that Dr. P.B. Jayasundera, the then Secretary to the President, finally decided against the IMF’s intervention.
Who should accept the blame for the current crisis? Would it be fair to hold Dr. PBJ accountable for an utterly irresponsible course of action that has caused immense political instability?
Basil on IMF
Having given up the SLPP National List slot and the finance portfolio, SLPP founder Basil Rajapaksa addressed the media at the Nelum Mawatha party office. The revelation made by Basil Rajapaksa, perhaps unwittingly, showed the SLPP had addressed the economic crisis. At the time, the IMF advised Sri Lanka to undertake a debt restructuring programme and drop plans to grant massive tax cuts, while Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa held the finance portfolio. Basil Rajapaksa, who took over finance in July 2021, in response to a media query last week explained how the IMF divided the government. According to him, when Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman raised the issue, Basil Rajapaksa, turning towards the then Finance Secretary S.R. Attygalle has said that he was among those who opposed seeking IMF intervention. Basil Rajapaksa has pointed out that Sri Lanka’s High Commissioner in New Delhi Milinda Moragoda favoured the move.
The government played in what could aptly be termed in local parlance as pandu with the national economy. By the time Basil Rajapaksa took over the Finance Ministry, in July 2021, irreparable damage had been done and the finalization of the Yugadanavi deal, two months later, divided the SLPP. The SLPP and a minority in the CEB hierarchy wielding power, defended the controversial deal struck at midnight to the hilt. CEB Chairman M.C. Ferdinando, on the invitation of the then presidential spokesman Kingsley Ratnayake, sought to paint a rosy picture at a media briefing arranged at the Presidential Media Division (PMD). Kingsley Ratnayake, formerly of Sirasa, has quietly left the PMD. Ratnayake has left the country at the onset of a public protest campaign and is believed to be in Australia. Sudewa Hettiarachchi, who joined the PMD as its Director General, remains as the government continues to struggle on the media front.
The explosion of public anger whether pre-planned or not, at the approaches to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s private residence at Pengiriwatte, Mihihana, on March 31, 2022, should be investigated, taking into consideration the following factors: (1) dismissal of IMF’s advice on the need to go for an immediate debt restructuring programme, the need to drop plans to implement massive tax cuts and fixing the Rupee rate at 203 at the expense of the overall economy (2) ruination of the agriculture sector as a result of unilateral and abrupt decision taken by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to ban chemical fertiliser and agro chemicals. The unprecedented move resulted in the decimation of the country’s agriculture output (3) Causing irreparable damage to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic ties with Japan by cancelling already agreed projects, including a light trail venture, a strategic foreign policy blunder (4) explosions of domestic gas cylinders caused by change of the formula by foreign suppliers possibly done deliberately to further worsen the situation here (5) disputed Yugadanavi deal. The agreement with the US energy firm divided the SLPP, with three ministers challenging the move in court along with many others (6) turning a blind eye to waste, corruption, irregularities and mismanagement (7) failure on the part of the government to discipline revenue collection setup, comprising the Inland Revenue Department, Customs and Excise Department and turning a blind eye to illegal money transferring methods, such as Hawala and Undiyal.
Then Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, in an interview with Shyam Nuwan Ganewatta of Divaina, foolishly declared his faith in illegal methods, little realizing that it was depriving the country of its precious foreign exchange (8) the continuing dispute over the handling of the 2019 Easter Sunday massacre by Muslim extremists (9) pathetic response to accountability accusations pertaining to Sri Lanka’s triumph over Tamil terrorism.
Can Basil Rajapaksa’s departure from Parliament or business tycoon Dhammika Perera’s entry in his place give overnight boost to a failed economy? Having promised a system change, the SLPP has lost its way and brought in Ranil Wickremesinghe, accused of being the alleged mastermind of the Treasury bond scams by the then Joint Opposition, and Perera, embroiled in tax issues, to manage the political and economic fronts.
Perhaps, INSS should seriously consider receiving a briefing from heads of parliamentary watchdogs, the Committee on Public Enterprises (chaired by Prof. Charitha Herath, MP), Committee on Public Finance (Anura Priyadarshana Yapa, MP) and Committee on Public Accounts (Prof. Tissa Vitharana) regarding the threat posed to political stability and national security by unbridled public and private sector corruption.
The COPE probing into the CBSL and the Finance Ministry appearance before the watchdog by its former members of the Monetary Board comprising Prof. W.D. Lakshman (Dec 2019-Sept 2021/Ajith Nivard Cabraal (Sept 2021-March 2022), Treasury Secretary S.R. Attygalle and nominated members Sanjeeva Jayawardena, PC, Dr. Ranee Jayamaha and Samantha Kumarasinghe caused the current crisis. In addition to the Monetary Board, the then Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa, who served as the Finance Minister (Dec 2019-July 2021) and Dr. P.B. Jayasundera, too, are accountable, with the latter being blamed for blocking the government securing IMF intervention.
Probe on security flop
Sri Lanka witnessed what can be described as a countrywide breakdown of law and order on May 09, following the SLPP goon attack on the Galle Face public protest, demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the entire Cabinet of Ministers, including Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa.
The month-long campaign had the backing of both external and internal forces hell-bent on a system change. The security forces, as well as the police, failure to prevent it as well as the meticulously organized military type retaliation, should be discussed against the backdrop of the Rambukkana shooting where a person died and two dozen others were wounded.
No one bothered to point out that the police opened fire nearly 15 hours after those protesting against fuel price hike blocked main roads as well as the Rambukkana railway line for 15 hours. Can protesting public block roads thereby inconvenience other ordinary people? And police resorted to use lethal force only after protesters turned violent and nearly blew up a petrol bowser by setting fire to it.
Unfortunately, the rapid deterioration of the economy against the backdrop of the government acknowledging insolvency has given an opportunity to various interested parties to undermine the rule of law. The continuing blockade on the Presidential Secretariat situated at Galle Face signifies a pathetic state of affairs. Dr. Nalaka Godahewa, who held the media portfolio at the time of the May 09 violence, raised the disgraceful failure on the part of the government to thwart organized attacks on a selected group of ruling party lawmakers, numbering over 70. The Gampaha District MP, whose Gampaha home suffered heavy damage, drew the attention of both President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe to the crisis, while warning of a 1987-1990 type insurgent campaign.
Obviously, the incumbent political leadership is furious with the military for not stepping in immediately. They are of the view that retaliatory attacks could have been thwarted if the military acted swiftly and decisively. Naturally, some have found fault with the then Commander of the Army General Shavendra Silva, who also functioned as the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). The appointment of a three-member committee headed by Admiral of the Fleet (retd.) Wasantha Karannagoda to inquire into the lapses on the part of the military should be viewed in the context of a volatile political-economic-social environment.
Could military intervention have saved Mahinda Rajapaksa’s premiership even at the expense of bloodshed? Had there been a large-scale military response to countrywide retaliatory attacks, the country would have been in a much bigger crisis today. There cannot be any dispute over that. No one would have desired Rathupaswela type incident at a time the government was pleading before the international community for food assistance. The incident in the first week of August 2013 shocked the country. It brought shame on the war-winning Army, though it too was instigated by mysterious forces.
In fact at the onset of the trouble, Gen. Silva, the celebrated GoC of the 58 Division, assured Colombo-based defence attaches that the military wouldn’t intervene. Had that happened, it would have definitely helped those who had been campaigning for the ouster of the Rajapaksas.
The Army earned the wrath of the public for opening fire on people demanding clean water at Rathupaswela. Three died in indiscriminate shooting. It would be pertinent to mention that the public had been protesting against the Dipped Products factory over the alleged releasing of chemicals into the environment. The villagers had been seriously concerned about their water supply for some time as they were dependent on groundwater. Their complaints had fallen on deaf ears. Obviously, those in authority hadn’t been interested at all in inquiring into the issue at hand.
Had they bothered to conduct an investigation in a timely and transparent manner, the accusations could have been ascertained and remedial measures taken. Then, why was it not done? Well, one cannot help but think that it is because the factory is owned by Hayleys controlled by Dhammika Perera, the latest entrant into parliamentary politics. In a way, Perera’s entry into active politics can be compared with Gotabaya Rajapaksa entering national politics at the highest level against the backdrop of widespread criticism of all members of Parliament.
Secretary to the Public Administration Ministry Attorney-at-Law Priyantha Mayadunne recently explained how the political party system ruined the country. Mayadunne didn’t hesitate to declare that the mother of all problems is the oversized public service that has been an unbearable burden on the national economy for a long time. One-time Justice Ministry Secretary Mayadunne asserted that Sri Lanka can manage with half a million strong public service though the actual figure is 1.5 mn. Isn’t it a destabilizing factor? If the INSS is really keen to ascertain the truth, it may undertake a thorough examination of destabilizing factors as the country slips further into foreign debt.
The economic crisis, as explained by Governor of the CBSL Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe, is so acute today, Sri Lanka is vulnerable to external machinations. The external threats can be quite deadly as those directly involved in the decision, making process here, too, have been part of various such anti-national projects. Yugadanavi deal can be cited as just one such example.
